On the other hand, I disagree with you about HD sales disappearing.
I don't mean that disks are going to zero.
What I mean is if disk revenue was $2.4 billion in Q2 2018 and will be $1.4 billion in Q2 2019, as time moves forward, it's not going back to $2.4 billion and above.
A better concept would be disk units are disappearing, and not returning. So when disk penetration in PCs goes from 66% in summer 2018 to 33% in Q4 2019, it is never going back up higher toward 66%, the displaced disk units are gone forever.
Similar story with enterprise, over time SSDs will replace some disk units in enterprise, and those units will never reappear in WDC's sales. They've moved to SSD units, and are not coming back.
Agreed, there will be some disk sales for the foreseeable future, but the number of unit sales (and total dollar value of disk sales) is going down, not up, and not even stable.
Sort of like Compact Disc as a music storage device when iPods arrived. I'm sure CD units sold went down each year, and never headed back up. That's what disks have to go through, and that transition (at least in c client PCs) should MASSIVELY accelerate in 2019. |
