especially when applications like IoT, VR, AR and autonomous vehicles really get going.
There are about 500 million consumer items (PCs, game consoles, etc.) sold annually that use hard drives (SSD or disk). Each device consumes ~50GB - 500GB of memory (NAND SSD or disk) each.
I don't know how many enterprise memory systems get sold each year, but they probably each cosumer HUUUGE memory (1TB and up) each.
There are about 1.1 billion cell phones, they each consume 16GB - 512GB.
So.....in these exciting new categories you list (IoT, VR, etc.), what is going to come anywhere close to any of those three as a memory consumer?
Can you list any example devices where they're probably going to sell 200 million or more units per year, and each units is going to require 500GB of memory?
If not, they're not going to move the needle on memory demand. Client, enterprise and mobile units are massive, and memory per unit is huge in each category. What new devices have global mass market adoption chances, and require 500GB memory per device? I have no idea of any of those products.
What auto device requires 500GB of memory? Is there one? There are about 90 million cars sold each year IN TOTAL ACROSS THE WORLD. Lets say 10% of them eventually become autonomous vehicles (yeah, right!). That's 9 million cars. Lets say each autonomous car has 10 memory devices with 10GB each per device (seriously? 10GB is a lot......what's in there?). It's not enough to move the demand needle at all in the face of 40% price declines each year in memory. |
