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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Rational who wrote (1101)1/18/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 9980
 
Sankar, I think that you are right and that the major decline in the Rp was induced by domestic flight to the dollar (and corporate flight as well). In essence emptying the foreign reserves in government coffers. In my opinion it is very similar to the "name" fiasco that in my opinion destabilized the Korean Won. One thing, in my opinion, is clear, these currencies were ripe for destabilization since the first half of last year and these specific events were just the proverbial straw (in each case) that broke the camel back. The weakness were systematic and due to excessive borrowing (and as you stated reckless lending, but not so much by Citibank as by the Japanese ($100 billions?), the French ($55 billions?), HK ($40 billion?) and the German and British (about $70 billions combined?).

I do not think that the IMF had any choice but come in a provide short term loans, demand decentralization of the economies and desertion of unrpofitable or exuberant mega projects.

Zeev
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