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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Sam who wrote (397377)1/27/2019 12:49:01 PM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) of 542957
 
All these debates as to why Clinton lost that focus on one or the other single variable explanation are simply wrong. Completely so. Not only do explanations need to be multivaried but they need to be sequenced. Because each event creates new conditions, however slight, for the next event. And since the voting difference was itself slight, it gets almost immeasurably complicated because there are so many "slight" variables/events.

In my list, the largest determinants for the narrow margin of victory were (1) a badly run Clinton campaign (lots of variables here), (2) the increasingly out of touch electoral college results, (3) Comey. And somewhere down the list is the reluctance of some Bernie voters to support her. How much of a role he played in that is not known. Perhaps not knowable.
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