Hi -
The thread's dead, it seems. I'm waiting for the next 10-Q.
My worry is that insiders seem to have been selling down their holdings. Cf: sec.gov
and
sec.gov, wherein it appears that John Gehl & trusts he controls have reduced their holdings by about 25% since early '97.
However, I think the stock price is being driven by different concerns: one, that the dollar's appreciation will kill exports (17% of '96 sales were exports), and two, that the business cycle will slip in '98, killing demand.
I don't worry too much about what concerns the market. Gehl doesn't make much money on international sales, and those sales have been a smaller portion that in years past. As they said in their last 10-Q, "export sales, typically made at a lower gross margin than domestic sales, [constituted] a smaller portion of third quarter shipments in 1997 than in 1996." As for the business cycle, I remain optimistic.
I continue to compare Gehl to Case, since I feel they're affected by similar macro factors, but (imho only) that Gehl's prospects are marginally brighter. As long as Gehl's PE is near (or below) Case's -- on Friday Gehl's was 11.4, Case's 10.6 -- I'll hold it.
mb |
