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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends

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From: dospesos	2/2/2019 12:48:22 PM
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I tried Twitter but they are mainly for one-liners......But Humble's SilliconInvestor lives....;) @KeithMcCullough You appear to be one of the few analysts who understands that Sovereigns go up in deflation, along with gold. Amazing but true. The way I see it, the US Government could eliminate all income taxes and just have Powell print away. That’s probably what’s going to happen anyway at even a hint of a real recession in the US…..which recession is on the way as we know. It’s what Japan has done for nearly 30 years. Perpetual printing which they rename every 2-4 years to keep the media and dopey analysts confused. In Japan it has led to fairly decent corporate profits and consumer deflation. Odd eh? Rather contravenes the usual expectation of major inflation during a printathon of SOVEREIGN BONDS. One could have made a fortune holding Japanese bonds for decades, just like Gary Shilling has done with US bonds. Most folks have no clue about Treasurys and have been calling for a low in bonds for 25 years because they think printing more bonds makes rates go up. Lordy! I’m no bond expert but I do know a little bond arithmetic. Duhhhh.. If rates go down: 1. You still get the earlier higher rates paid to you, however worthless that may be now, and 2. The frigging bonds go through the roof. Shilling says he never bought bonds for the interest which is a pittance, ONLY for the appreciation. In Switzerland even the sub zero Sovereign bonds are going up! It’s amazing anyone still buys stocks at all. In fact it’s clear to me that Trump and Powell and their fellow printers worldwide see stocks as the little-to-middle guy asset. They worry about elections and/or revolutions, so they prop up the stocks. That’s why stock bear markets are verrrry bad in their minds. They also be timid or gradual in putting the printathon into action because they fear higher rates, but there would doubltless be a wiggle or two in bonds until it becomes evident AGAIN that it doesn't work and didn't work for BearHanky or Yellin. Rich and/or smart people buy bonds. It was the same in the 1930’s. The printers fear deflation. The smart people love it and know it will continue. The only way out of long term deflation is a huge war that makes demand and prices go up…..unless you lose the war of course. Paul Krugman, the crafty NYT hack, knows all this and has actually put the idea in print. Anyhow, keep up the good work. Don't let the Old Wall dummies get to you. TD

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