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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16429)1/18/1998 11:54:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Aseans are making good progress we see sea of black a rare sight even for bulls- key resistances are being taken out close above 16200 looks inevitable today a first close and this is quite a move up even finacial sector has started moving now if you really go back a week and look at post when we were in middle of new selling wave I wrote that this time the banks in wake of big profits on bonds have much higher threshold of pain - adequacy ratios deterioration below 15000 was very much neutralised by higher valuations on bond portfolios with
markets coming back up we see now profits from bonds and new higher valuations helping banks to rally above 16800 we may see a short covering rally- I see that in ASEA we may not see protracted longer term recession like Mexico ASEANs problems although serious are pale in comparison to short term Tessa Tessibano and huge reliance which FM had on TELEMEX ADR as a proxy for Mexico- none of these global managers believe that ASEA asset deflation will now induce few quarters of slow down so far Impots Export figures confim the trend that to export more they need to import a lot of equipment and secondary products- although big infra structure projects have been shelved but they were any way on the drawing boards only and most of them will not cause a major earning revisions for any othe OECD corporates- all said we are going to see some votality however the way markets have snapped back from a third test of bottom I will like you to take note of it- SPA this time rally did not even made a test of 900 910 area it has been higher lows as new lows were made in Japan and all the other ASEAN countries- it all looks and adds up well and I will expect 980 test now a formality once we close above it by Thursday as more broad market earnings confirm the trend we move to test 992 one again- this I think will take atleast a week and movements will be btw 955 and 992 - I will keep close watch on IBM GE G earnings if any broad market move as I expect to come soon has to matrialise it needs to have some leaders and some of these stocks can provide good leadership like Bnaking sector is well off the highs Citicorp is one example now with ASEA out of dooldrums even a slight move up on Banks will do good for the market- I see that soe of these stocks Well Fargo Citi Bank are off their highs big time on fears from ASEA I will think of looking at this sector to provide some meaning ful strength to rally above 992- but lets keep our targets well defined first is 992 very important overhead resistance - hope we go above that soon- bonds exactly are at levels we anticipated 122 area and as expected bond flight to quality premium is decreasing this will soon result in a more normal looking yield curve this flattening which I was worried about will now for atleast next few weeks will give way to upward move- for equity markets this will be a good confirmatory signal- lets watch this move very carefully and take advantage of the market.
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