Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14815)	1/18/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: Steve Rolfe	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Brian, First off, I am pretty new to trading so keep that in mind. I think if the shares you talk about as trading shares are really trading shares then it might make sense to try and get smaller gains at a time. Since the ASIA thing looks like it will hang around a while I believe you could get in and out with 2 point gains at least 5 times before AMAT hits 39 5/8. This would give you the equivalent gain (10 points versus 9 5/8 assuming a price of 30 for AMAT right now) The trick is to determine the 2 point range. The range right now looks like 28/29 to 30/31. You could move this range up as AMAT creeps up towards earnings. The nice thing about this strategy is that AMAT does not have to creep up for you to get the gains. I have heard and read that it is best just to buy and hold because as you mentioned you may miss a big upswing. My personal observation is that if you know a stock well you should be able to gain enough by small trades to make up for the big jump. I also have noticed lately that the big jumps are the exceptions and the creeping down and creeping up are the rule. Another observation is that you can get murdered when a stock is sliding without stops and without the guts to short. It is probably best to avoid a stock in the middle of a slide(Don't ask me how to determine this - I thought AMAT was done sliding at 38 and at 33). The beauty of AMAT is that it has tested 26/27 3 times and bounced back strong lending significant confidence that this is a bottom(at least to me). It has been in the 28-31 range for the most part lately. It would be interesting to see how many times a buy at 28.5 and sell at 30.5 strategy would have worked since the intial time AMAT dropped below 28. Granted this range is easy to determine in hindsight. I mentioned that many people believe buy and hold is the best way to go. This is very true if you value your time. I am eating up time watching these tech stocks lately... This strategy may decrease your pain and agony while you wait for AMAT to climb, but may give you a heart attack if you sell at 30/31 and AMAT jumps to 36/37 and you are out! So what do you think? Steve

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