Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 156.00

+0.6%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Mason Barge who wrote (4492)	1/19/1998 2:02:00 AM
From: William Nelson	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Mason, What is your analysis of the previous semi-equip downturn? Did the semi companies not need new technology then? I would think there is always something new they need to buy, but it doesn't mean they're going to buy as much of it as they were buying of the old stuff before they overbuilt....so btb can still take a hit. BTW, I'm very ignorant of this market but am trying to learn fast. Looking at the last downturn, this one looks mild so far; blood (i.e., red ink) is not running copiously that I know of. There was a big price fall, but on the other hand the high was maybe unrealistic. >That said, semi equipment investment is in the odd position of being >overcapitalized (i.e. the > Koreans shutting down DRAM lines) but needing major new capital >for new technology. This > could be the biggest winning sector in the market, unless >something really powerful happens in, > say, the oil or finance sectors.

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