Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 269.55

+0.3%

Dec 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: Steve Rolfe who wrote (14839)	1/19/1998 2:22:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Steve, >I read this weekend about the banks reporting this week. The article I read said the banks should do just fine. This surprised me - they seem like they would have the biggest exposure to ASIA.< Do not be deceived by the article. The fact of the matter is that the Dorsey Wright bank bull percentage last week dropped from 86.90 percentile to 70.40 percentile, statistically. IMO, statistically speaking, looking at the Bell shaped curve we know that there is the tendence to reach the average (50 percentile) so we could see the banks falling further. IMO, I do not follow what articles, analysist say since it appears that many of them downgrade a stock after it has already gone down and upgrade a stock after it has already gone up. I prefer the basics of supply and demand as you have seen in my previous post and the use of statistics. Personally, I would not buy in the bank stocks as I still consider them overvalued. Others on this thread will probably want to relate to the reliability of the analysist, etc. Just my opinion. Paul V.

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