QUANTUM Message Board - Msg: 3201963

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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM

QNTM 6.910

-4.8%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (7093)	1/19/1998 7:03:00 AM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (3) of 9124

GM - <<If they make 12M in an average week [as per Forbes story], that's 12x50=600M per year>> Here's my guess at the #s(a real stetch).. HTCH during the last 7 Qs(up thru SepQ97): 145(est) 145, 143, 165, 201, 195, 156 million std susps. My est for the DecQ is 150mil(or less). That basically makes for 600mil in 96 and 700mil in 97. According to Dataquest there were 106mil DD in 96, 339 platter sold which makes approx 3.2platters/DD. If we assume(which we cannot really) that there are 2 heads/platter it would mean 680mil heads sold in 96. Which makes HTCHs 600mil a pretty fair chunk of the susp market(88%...) The last est I saw was for 126mil DDs to be sold in 97. Assuming the same head/susp rate makes HTCHs est 700mil susps in 97 end up around the same 88%. I'm sure I've missed on some details, but you can see theat they are in fact THE major player in this game. todd BTW, what does this really tell us? HTCH is THE dominant player in one critical aspect of this market. Probably the most dominant player in ANY part of the DD sector. We ought to be watching these folks like a hawk! A good CC Tuesday should make us all happy, a bad one however... Yikes todd

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