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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (4764)1/19/1998 7:58:00 AM
From: BigKNY3  Read Replies (3) of 23519
 
TA: <<ALL of PFEs drugs can be substituted safely with cheaper versions. >>

Several quick points appropriate for the Vivus Board.

-All of PFE's major products have patent protection beyond the year 2001 and can not be legally substituted. Moreover, not many physicians are not willing to prescribe less expensive older drugs for the newer products ie. a tricyclic antidepressant for Zoloft .

-The price of PFE, VVUS and the general market are correlated. The relationship between VVUS and PFE is positive (r=.25). If the general market heads south, both PFE and VVUS will follow.

-When making an investment, I always want to evaluate the level of risks as well as the potential gain. What is the possibility of losing 10%, 25%, and 50% of the original investment? An important consideration for the rare investor who is making a choice between PFE and VVUS.

-No one product accounts for more than 20% of PFE revenue... good protection even if one product runs into competition from a new market entry.

-During the last 10 years, the largest yearly PFE decline was 14% ( in 1992 with the election of President Clinton). The possibility of a 30% PFE decline given its new products and strong investor support would require a huge market retreat that would effect every stock including VVUS.

-HMOs have actually had a positive effect on the sales of drugs over the last 5 years. Especially if the drugs can be shown to replace surgical procedures.

BigKNY3
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