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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX)
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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (376)1/19/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Greg R  Read Replies (5) of 3558
 
Lisa - I was going to send you a note last week. Remember the negative Stifled Bear Set that I said would only have a 0 to 5% chance because it had never been seen on the DOW? Well the low last Monday completed a perfect Stifled Bear-run. It followed the "exact" trend of the predicted Stifled Bear. I still do not want to believe the DOW could be so negative however I am forced to give it at least a 50% chance now. (If this was a stock I was looking at, I would say there was a 95% chance)

I also learned I had the 13 week long bull-set drawn slightly too bullish. The potential peak has been postponed by five trading days.

This market has turned so flaky with wild variations as it prepares to collapse, that I hesitate to make any predictions. What I expect for this week is:

- The DOW peaks on January 21 and follows the trend of the Stifled Bear set downwards for about 4 trading days. This is normal regardless of how the current bull finishes out.

-At that point, your guess is as good as mine. As I say, if it was a stock I would state that it will continue the Stifled Bear Downwards till it rested on a value of 7680 on Feb 2, then climb for a couple more trading days and then continue the Stifled bear.
IF the next bear is going to be "normal", then this bull will peak out around the end of the first week of February at a last mighty attempt to break 8000. Could even get as high as 8050 for a few minutes.

Meanwhile, personally, I have liquidated virtually everything except for two final stocks which are to be sold tomorrow or Wednesday.
Having virtually all funds in Retirement plans, I am not allowed to sell short and cannot take advantage of the drop. If anyone knows how to do this, PLEASE tell me.
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