Bob -
Sorry for the delay - I haven't been watching the thread lately.
To answer your question - I'm betting it is short term. But by short term, I don't mean one or two quarters. I'm trying to look out a year or two.
Whatever problems we have, I'm confident they wil be solved. It's politically inconceivable that the West can stand by and do nothing while this volitile region sinks into chaos. North Korea still wants to invade the south, China still wants Taiwan, and God only knows whatever other crazy situations may develop in an atmosphere of economic chaos.
Also, technology is in no danger of going extinct, and change is driving everyone into replacing obsolete capacity. If Korea can't afford it, then US and Eurpoe will.
Western banks and brokerage houses are already seeing big time opportunities in the region due to the incredibly low valuations, so I think we're in for a few quarters of restructuring followed by more expansion.
Also, I recall other situations where despair stopped on a dime and turned into euphoria overnight. Take Best Buy - 8 to 45 in less than a year. So, I'm prepared to wait it out. Actually, the slower the recovery the better - thanks to the new capital gains rules.
Anyhow, that's just my opinion. Good luck!
Tom |
