| | | While I don't believe Trump will be able to run for office in 2020, this is worthwhile anyway:
Let’s talk about why only a centrist candidate could defeat Trump next year. To do this, look at the closest states from the 2016 Election. 1/
 TheValuesVoter? @TheValuesVoter
The 10 closest states in the 2016 Presidential Election all were won with a 3.66% margin or less. They combined for 123 Electoral Votes. Trump won 6
The states, in order of how close they came, are Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine, Arizona and North Carolina. All these states were close and presumably could be close again. So what can we learn from them? 3/
Only 8 of our 50 states are represented by one US Senator from each major party. But of these 10 closest states, 3 of the states are represented in the US Senate by one Republican and one Democrat. 4/
5 of these 10 states have both parties in control or sharing control of either the House or the Senate. For example, Michigan has an equal number of Republicans and Democrats in the House and 2 Democratic Senators. 5/
Pennsylvania is perfectly split in its Congressional Delegation (or at least it was before one Republican Congressman resigned in January). Equal number of Republicans and Democrats in both the House and the Senate. 6/
Only two of these ten states are dominated by a single party. Florida is completely controlled by Republicans at the Federal and State level - although their House delegation is almost evenly split. And Nevada is completely controlled by Democrats. The others are mixed. 7/
This means that voters in these states, have voted for both parties. Either for Governor, US Senator, US Representative, State Senate or State House. To the extent that, in most of these close states, both major parties control parts of the government or share control of it. 8/
Contrast this with the states like California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, or New York, which are completely controlled by Democrats. Or Alaska, Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina or Texas, completely controlled by Republicans. 9/ |
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