A brief record of previous reports from Susquehanna's Hosseini, as reported on this thread since last March. His biggest miss was after Sept earnings. But so did most of us, including me.
March 19, 2018:
Micron price target raised to $80 from $60 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini raised his price target for Micron Technology to $80 ahead of the company's earnings report on Thursday, March 22. The stock in midday trading is down $1.53 to $59.05.
The analyst expects Micron's "cost leadership" and "product diversification" to dominate earnings. He views the company as the cost leader in NAND and believes management can use the 50% share rally in the past six weeks for acquisitions.
Micron needs acquisitions to "beef-up its portfolio of IP/System know-how," Hosseini tells investors in a research note. The analyst keeps a Positive rating on the shares.
Message 31533344
Sept 10, 2018:
Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Mehdi Hosseini reduced his price target on shares of Micron Technology Inc. MU, +0.50% to $75 from $80 on Monday, writing that memory average selling prices were tracking worse than his expectations.
Following meetings in Korea, Hosseini now models that blended ASPs for DRAM products will fall by 15% to 20% in 2019, though he expects that much of that correction will take place in the first half of the year. He sees indications that NAND ASPs are also tracking worse than expected.
Hosseini maintained his positive rating on Micron shares, which are up 1.3% in premarket trading. The stock has gained 38% over the past 12 months, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.22% has risen 17% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX, +0.81% has shot up 24%.
Message 31783323
Sept 21, 2018:
The biggest debate among analysts was when Micron is likely to see a "bottom" in its metrics (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/micron-earnings-after-a-quarter-of-debate-how-bad-has-the-memory-market-gotten-2018-09-18) and its stock price, which had already declined more than 20% in the past three months. Susquehanna Financial Group's Mehdi Hosseini titled his note to clients: "The Road To 'Trough' Begins Now; Buckle Up, It May Take A Few Quarters."
Hosseini argued that Micron's earnings are likely to bottom out in the middle of next year on a per-share basis, though he thinks "it is challenging to convince investors to accumulate until there's incremental confidence May quarter is indeed the 'trough.'"
For the stock, he alluded to a historical "playbook" of sorts that suggested an inflection point in stock price six months ahead of an inflection point in fundamentals.
Based on that, "perhaps the November to December time frame is the key period for the stock to start discounting the May Q EPS troughing," Hosseini said. He rates the stock at positive with a price target of $75.
Message 31801362
Oct 23:
Micron Technologies Is Under the Gun as Demand Outlook Worsens -- Barrons.com
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 1:04 PM ET 10/23/2018
The price of Micron Technology(MU) stock has fallen nearly 40% since the summer, but the upside has diminished as well, according to Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini.
He lowered his rating to Neutral from Positive for shares of Micron , citing deteriorating demand from cloud-computing providers. Conversations with technology executives indicate a worrisome trend toward freezing spending on equipment, he says.
"Recent checks imply incremental weakness in Cloud and Enterprise spending expectations" for the first half of 2019, Hosseini wrote on Tuesday. "In short, overall 1H19 demand has become more uncertain, with material downside risk."
Micron didn't immediately respond to a request for comment about the report. Its stock dropped 4% on Tuesday and is now down 7% for the year. At one point in May, the stock was up more than 50% year to date.
Hosseini lowered his price target for Micron to $45 from $75, implying upside of about 17% from the current level. The stock was at $38.50 shortly after midday in New York.
Message 31849050
Dec 10:
A Micron Stock Skeptic Cuts Price Target Again -- Barrons.com
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 3:03 PM ET 12/10/2018
Symbol Last Price Change |
| MU | 34.8 | -0.51 (-1.44%) | | QUOTES AS OF 04:00:00 PM ET 12/10/2018 |
After slashing his Micron Technology(MU) stock-price target by 40% in October, Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini has cut his forecast for the chip shares again.
He lowered his forecast for Micron to $40 from $45, citing deteriorating demand in the server and smartphone markets. The analyst also reiterated his Neutral rating for the stock.
In similar fashion, KeyBanc Capital Markets lowered its sales estimates for several chip stocks on Sunday, saying the semiconductor sector is struggling with inventory problems and weaker-than-expected orders.
"We are lowering DRAM and NAND bit shipment estimates for 2019 and 2020...we expect lower bit shipments in the February and May quarters due to weaker server and mobile demand," Hosseini wrote on Monday. "Our updated estimates imply material downside risk to consensus estimates."
Message 31923408
Dec 19:
* Micron Technology Inc : Susquehanna cuts price target to $33 from $40
And then of course today (the post I am replying to):
Falling Memory Chip Prices Don't Look Good for These Companies -- Barrons.com
10:08 AM ET 2/19/19 | Dow Jones
By Tae Kim
Susquehanna Financial Group is worried memory chip prices will drop far more than expected this year.
The firm's analyst Mehdi Hosseini is warning investors the price drops will dramatically hurt the profitability of chip companies, including Micron Technology (ticker: MU) and Western Digital (WDC).
"We expect significant deterioration in memory margin profiles by a much greater magnitude than what is dialed into consensus," he wrote on Tuesday. "Our field checks last week suggest worse than expected ASP [average selling price] trends for both DRAM and NAND."
DRAM refers to dynamic random-access memory, used in desktop computers and servers. NAND is flash memory, which is used in smartphones and solid-state hard drives.
Hosseini noted both DRAM and NAND chip prices are down 20% to 25% in the first quarter versus estimates of falling 15%.
The analyst says pricing for DRAM chips is on track to decline by as much as 40% and predicts NAND prices will fall by as much as 50% this year, which will lead to significant profit margin deterioration.
Micron and Western Digital didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. The analyst has Neutral ratings on both stocks.
Micron shares were down 0.7% to $41.68, while Western Digital stock was up 2.7% to $48.92 on Tuesday. Shares of both chip stocks have risen more than 25% year-to-date.
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