Hi Jim:
There are actually at least 3 high-speed solutions
to Internet access:
a) ADSL, which will offer speeds up to 1.5Mb/sec.
However, because of the need to recondition their
lines (eliminate coils, etc..) RBOCs do not appear to
be in a big rush to deploy ADSL massively.
b) Cable modems: The problem here is the same, since
two-way access requires two-way activated HFC cables.
c) Fixed wireless access in the 28GHz or 38GHz bands.
The 28 GHz band has been allocated by the FCC for
LMDS (local multipoint distribution service) which
is capable of providing bundled video/telephony/data
(Internet) service to the home. The LMDS auction will
take place next month. The only LMDS provider right now
is CVUS which offers wideband internet access in Manhattan.
The achievable rate is around 40Mbps/sec, but I do not
believe their current service is that fast. CVUS still uses
a phone line for the return line, but LMDS is really designed
for two-way access. LMDS is a promising technology, since
it is probably cheaper to deploy than ADSL or cable, but
because it is a line of sight technology, it has a few problems.
In particular, it is affected by obstructions such as
tall buildings and trees.
In the 38GHz band, Winstar (WCII) appears also poised to
roll out Internet access services. However, WCII is primarily a
CLEC (competitive local exchange carrier) whose customer
base is primarily businesses, not individuals.
I believe that fixed ground based broadband wireless
services may represent a strong competition against
satellite-based Internet access providers. This may
not be a huge threat for Cyberstar/Skybridge, which is
a relatively simple system, but I would not bet a dime
on the success of Pacific Teledesic. I think Bill Gates
made a mega-billion dollars mistake. Of course, he can
afford to recover from this mistake by buying out
whoever emerges as the dominant fixed broadband wireless
company.
Regards,
Bernard Levy |
