Jyoti: It seems that we are on opposing sides re: Nikkei. I think that Japan Inc. has refused to write down bad debt for about 7 or more years now. Everytime the Nikkei approaches 14,000 Japan Inc. comes with a new "scheme" to strengthen the banks, but so far none of these schemes resolve the real problems, the fact that the bad loans on their books prevent them from using that money and deploy it in better businesses that will allow Japan to get back on its true potential growth curve. These are assets that are locked, not only thay are not used elsewhere, but they are endangering some of these financial institutions' operations. The recent "revaluation" of real estate will now make 14,000 less critical and for a short time the breach of that level will not bring a catastrophic decline, since the banks will not be forced to sell stock (since now their books are cooked in such a way that those real estate properties added to assets), thus the defense of 14,000 will not be as determined as before (and apart of a major tax cut, I do not see what other ammunition they have, Koi revaluation?), and I therefore think that new lows in the Nikkei will occur. If a real major tax cut is coming up, then I would agree with you. If they do the right thing and allow failing banks too fail, we might have a temporary breach of the low, but that would be the last nail in their bear market, IMHO.
Zeev |
