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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Joe Antol who wrote (19713)1/19/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: Scott C. Lemon  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Hello Joe,

I'm glad it's a holiday, because if it weren't I don't think that I would have the time to pursue this discussion! ;-) I'm not sure that you addresses my post specifically, but deflection is a part of debate. ;-)

Scott: Allow me to make it real simple (without the quotebacks):

Ok ... but I don't believe that it's real simple ...

1. Microsoft by not supporting NDS "will" hurt Novell.
Measureably.


As a scientific type I think this is a most amusing statement. The first part is pure opinion ... because only time will tell. None of us know what is going to happen ... we can speculate, but it is an opinion. The best part about SI and our posts is that our words are going down in history. We all will one day look back and know what we predicted and what we failed to predict.

But the second part "Measureably." is the part I find most amusing. I'm sorry but could you please explain how you would intend to accurately measure this and attribute the effects to Microsoft not "supporting" NDS? Even if there is some effect, I do not believe that there is any way that you could "measure" these effects. We don't know what the outcome *would* have been, so there is no value to measure against.

2. IBM's problem with OS/2 as a competitor to Windows, in the
enterprise and on the "consumer" desktop; to IBM is a "non-issue".


Oops. Wrong again Joe. Good attempt at deflection, but this is not my point. If I refer back to my post, I was addressing your statement:

You are a good "worker". You are very "loyal". Of which neither
quality will make any money for the shareholders.


I attempted to express that I felt that you are wrong. I believe that "good" and "loyal", along with hard-working, committed, and dedicated are all necessary for a company to succeed. I tried to indicate that OS/2 is a prime example of where money and size of the company sure didn't help. I will continue to argue that it's exactly the people that make a difference.

Novell has "a" product line. Novell has (had) "a" market-cap. IBM
has many, many, many other areas to derive revenue from. LVG said
that the war for the desktop was over (to paraphrase) 2 years ago. I
was simply pointing out that Microsoft, the current entity, has and
does have the power to do what it wants. IBM doesn't have a stock
problem.


So you are saying that IBM has the ability to make more stupid errors, and to have "non-good" and "non-loyal" workers and they will survive? I agree with that completely. IBM has huge amounts of resources to fall back on ... but that was not the point being discussed.

3. If you believe anything that's said here can "drive the price
down" then .... well.. I'll defer on that one.


I'm not sure that I stated I believe that ... and I don't know if you believe that either ... that's why I'm so facinated by your posts ...

4. No, I don't own any. Yes, I will when the price is low enough.

I'm glad to hear this. What you *are* saying then, is that you do feel that Novell is a good investment (if you could get your last $.50 or $1 out of the price), and that you would invest your money and expect Novell to do well and become a good investment?

Or am I mis-reading this?

5. I am still here to get information. That is the purpose of SI.

I guess this was my facination ... that the specific posts that I am referencing, you are not "getting information", but you are expressing opinions of future events that I would like more detail on. It's easy to point at news that has already happened. But even Rod was willing to forecast a series of events that he believes will happen in the market (many of which I was quite impressed by!) ... I guess that I'm trying to learn from your position, and would love more detail on your analysis.

6. Where are a) The rebuttal's to MOAB review, b) Novonyx status?

Again, good move! You have practiced debate. If I re-read my post, I don't believe that this relates to the topic at hand. But, you know full well that I have no control over this. I can only suggest what I think should be done. I do not believe that you will ever find a comment from me arguing with you on points like this.

7. Apart from you being "Pollyanesqe", where are "your" FACTS?
(+or-)? At least I can "support" mine regarding Novell's
"non-presence. Can U? You will (next Q). That's gonna be IMHO Schmidts "last Q". Show the $!


I believe that several people posted links, and I did also, directly related to the conversation at hand ... the changes happening in the industry with respect to Microsoft.

Joe, you are more than welcome to take your anger out on me. Attack ... punch ... kick ... taunt ... insult ... go for it. If I am able to make you feel better about your investment decisions, please go ahead. But I truely do not feel that it is worth your time. I have one more of your posts that I will address today ... and then I will get back to work.

Scott C. Lemon
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