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Biotech / Medical : Techniclone (TCLN)
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To: Dave Belz who wrote (1101)1/19/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: EZLibra  Read Replies (1) of 3702
 
Instead of tilting at windmills a recognition of facts can make all of us an awful lot of money.

There is one major seller, Herzog and company, which is brokering for holders of the S-3. There goal is to drive the stock as low as possible in order to convert as many shares as they can. They would rather the stock collapse from any other reason than short selling because a share sold short is still a share sold. The holders of the S-3 will be Techniclone's greatest boosters once they have a permanent conversion price. John Q. Public buying the stock here at plus/minus $1.25 is actually participating in the S-3 members' pricing without bearing any of their risk. How are the S-3 members at risk? I see four principle reasons, all of which are under discussion with various principals;
1) The short sellers fail to maintain downside pressure because they have to convert too many shares. This is basically a war of attrition depending on momentum.
2) One buyer bids for X million shares at the offer. The seller either has to accomodate the buyer or move the offer up. In TCLN's situation any momentum can be self-fulfilling.
3) The company releases market moving news (I think it is safe to assume that Techniclone is decoupled from the Dow 30).
4) The company is sold. The least amount I have heard is 200 million in a fire sale. Take that amount with the current number of shares and you have a price of about $7 or use an S-3 conversion at $1 and you have about $5 per share.

Therefore I conclude that buying TCLN at the current price is more or less guaranteeing yourself a profit of about 400%. No one has accused the S-3 contingent of being stupid and ethics certainly don't concern them so why not take advantage of the opportunity they have afforded us? Turnabout is fair play.
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