Rig availability must be at least a minor issue. Would you expect aipn to already have started the logistics in getting some rigs on the way to these areas? Even if there is additional seismic that needs to be digested, wouldn't it be a near term bearish sign for drilling not to begin at Chikuduk or Bengash during 2ndQ?
Yes rig availability is an issue and one that they gave the appropriate caveat about.
No I don't make much of there choice to drill. That is a function of a mired of things. In a desert job, they actually drill the third choice first, sole because it was the easiest to get too.
Yes siesmic will be digested first. That is only prudent to do. I once caution that this will take time to unfold, which it has. They can set targets, but they are subject to change. Nature of the game.
Do you feel short term that it is extremely important for aipn to show confidence in their data by drilling in a timely manner.
Only as a function of the stock price. Investors may get nervous over delays, but it is again, to be expected to a certain degree.
Does it appear to you that aipn has enough cash on hand for the following:
--continue with the seismic program
--move rigs on site and commence drilling
--continue with the start up operations of the refinery (it's "startup" as long as they haven't sold any asphalt)
And there are probably other cash outlays.
Yes on siesmic, yes on one or two wells, no on refinery if they are doing the first two. OF course they may have a line of credit setup at anytime for the refinery, if they have contract to supply finnished product.
DrRisk made the point that he feels a JV is required prior to any drilling...it's not an unreasonable position if additional dilution is being ignored as a possibility--and that is a giant chuckle!
I've advocated this all along. I'm sure that the prospectus JV will want to see the data first and analyze it to a certain degree. However, that $640 mil deal some talked about won't happen. That is too much for a block that is still rated slightly below rank wildcat. Then again I've seen some strange prices for blocks in Venezuela, lately. They will need to sign that deal for a number of reasons.
They can't at this stage consider selling more shares, that would be foolhardy, IMO. |
