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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: robnhood who wrote (13269)	1/19/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) of 18056

rr, I think that their stock portofolio does not start to go under water (on the average) until the Nikei drops below 14,000. This is one reason that the government has been fighting an heroic battle to maintain the Nikkei above that level. Everytime we dip under 15,000 the cavalry comes to the rescue, and if they finally pull out all stop and provide a real strong fical stimulus, they may be able to restart the economy. The other side of the equation, is however the need to release into the economy (loan) massive amounts of money tied up as bad debts. To do that these debts needs to be written off to their real value and that may cause some banks to fail, hopefully the Koi and real estate revaluation process might keep them above water, but that will only delay to latter dates the problems since the revaluation of real estate is fraught with dangers of over valuation (without actual transactions who knows what the real value of a piece of land or building is?). In other words, you leave the door open and the thieves will come in. Zeev

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