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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 694.07+0.7%Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (121503)3/9/2019 12:12:09 PM
From: Joseph Silent  Read Replies (1) of 221624
 
Bob ..... I think a lot rests on the chances of a (good?) deal .......

but I am unable to even get an idea of the odds on a deal given the randomness in the little data we have to go on. The next month ...... or say until early May is key. I have to believe that somewhere in the options world this calculation is going on, along with the predicted volatility, every day.

What odds would you give on a deal happening (and I ask knowing this is a hard question to answer) ?

Some are absolutely certain it will happen. Just as many don't see how it can. And I think I have no clue and can lean one way one day and the other way the next.

Underneath it all I think everybody knows it will be good if one happens. I expect we'll get new ATHs in that case, maybe not right away.

I saw a couple of very nice articles by Jeremy Grantham recently. I'll point you to them if I can recollect where and find them.
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