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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: WBendus who wrote (631)1/19/1998 8:31:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
Wayde,

I agree with your basic premise that there is a hidden reserve of cash out there yet to be invested and that does provide strong support in the Dow 7000-7500 area. And I do hope to see an earnings rally during the next several weeks, although the uncertainties out there make me cautious to invest in anything except Y2K stocks.

One of the issues not being widely discussed that is related to the Asian "flu", is the general lack of awareness, nor preparations for the Year 2000 millenium bug. They seems to be great nervousnous in the "back room" discussions between the financial experts but no one is quite willing to state opinions publically as of yet.

It is only an educated guess on my part, but I submit that we will be fortunate to see Dow 8000 again (chart pattern), and we may easily see 6500 before summer as awareness rises and investors go to cash, bonds, or REIT's (which seem to be looked at like a bond substitute).

Do you see anything wrong in my analysis?? I just see more reasons to sell stocks than to buy them given that next quarter earnings will reflect more fully the state of the Asian impact on the US economy. Y2K may well be the knockout punch to their financial institutions.

Regards,

Ron
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