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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It
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To: Rarebird who wrote (914)3/16/2019 10:25:02 AM
From: RetiredNow   of 1504
 
Stock market looks forward, not backward. End of QT is coming soon. Fed meeting next week, I think. Powell should have more details at that time. It is probably a new bull market. - Rarebird

Agreed on this. I believe that's exactly what is happening. Markets are anticipating end of QT and no interest rate hike from Powell. The Fed drives all major action in the markets now. We have complete conformance from stocks and bonds due to QE & QT. That's why they rise in tandem with QE and sink in tandem with QT. Now that QT is going to end, and if we hit a recession this year, we'll see QE4, we're are seeing stocks and bonds go up in tandem. It's all very predictable. I know you are a trader, which is why I like to double check with you periodically. I'm more of a macro investor and make my moves glacially. I in mostly in short dated 1-3 yr bonds now with about 5 years of cash equivalents in 1 year bond mutual fund. As I posted to you before, I had engaged a buy program when the markets dipped to 20% last year, but I recently sold off all those stocks and am now back to the bond holding pattern. I just have this itchy feeling that the fundamentals will reassert themselves at some point. I don't know when, but I think later this year or early next year we go into recession, and before that happens, stocks will experience another crash, probably lower than last year's low. For a trader, this is all good news. You are going to continue to get your volatility with plenty of opportunities to make money on the ups and downs.
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