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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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elpolvo
To: NAG1 who wrote (403151)3/18/2019 12:30:55 PM
From: koan1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 540728
 
The women won in Republican districts across the country and many in deep red districts like their winning ALL the seats in very conservative Orange county in California.

What this will do is allow those women to win over the folks, and especially the women and kids in red districts who have been brain washed with right wing clap trap :)>. They are in a great position to educate them.

Neal RothschildNov 17
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Democrats flip another seat, turning all of Orange County blue



Screenshot: Morning Joe/MSNBC

The House race for California's 39th district has been called for Democrat Gil Cisneros over Young Kim, who was vying to become the first Korean-American woman in Congress and Republicans' last hope to keep a seat in Orange County. It is the 39th House seat that Democrats flipped this year.

The big picture: Democrats dominated congressional races in the state this year, flipping six seats with four of them in traditionally red Orange County. The seat had been held by Republican Ed Royce for 13 terms.

2018 midterm elections

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Mike Allen6 hours ago
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2020's politically correct presidential election



Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

Get ready for the most politically correct — and politically incorrect — election of our lifetime.

Why it matters: Look for 2020 Democratic candidates to be more careful than ever not to offend anyone, while Trump revels in the contrast with a stream of outlandish assertions and observations that will delight his followers.

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    On one side, you have President Trump, easily the most politically incorrect figure to win the White House in the modern era. He loves nothing more than to taunt liberals, the media and America with throwback thinking and insults. On the other, you have the most diverse Democratic field ever, showing early and enthusiastic insistence on inclusivity, as well as race, gender and lifestyle sensitivity.
This weekend was a sneak peek: Beto groveling and Trump bellowing. Beto O'Rourke apologized for joking during his first two days on the trail that his wife is raising their three children "sometimes with my help."

    For good measure, he admitted his white male privilege had benefited him, and said his preference for a running mate would be a woman.As RedState put it: "Beto Apologizes for Being White & Male After the Woke Trash Him Over a Joke About His Wife."
At the same time, Trump was tweeting love for two embattled Fox News hosts — Tucker Carlson, who made misogynistic comments on a radio show a decade ago, and "Judge" Jeanine Pirro, who made an anti-Muslim comment on her Fox show.

    "Keep fighting for Tucker, and fight hard for @JudgeJeanine. Your competitors are jealous," Trump tweeted.Trump continued: "Stop working soooo hard on being politically correct, which will only bring you down ... The losers all want what you have, don’t give it to them. Be strong & prosper, be weak & die!"
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2020 presidential election

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Amy Harder7 hours ago
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Column / Harder Line
Trump and Republicans are isolated on climate change



Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

President Trump and congressional Republicans are increasingly outliers in an otherwise emerging consensus across America that climate change is a problem and that the government should pass new laws to address it.

The big picture: The shift has been underway for the last couple of years, driven by investor pressure, growing public concern and mounting scientific urgency. In the last several months, the fervor around the Green New Deal is accelerating this shift and accentuating Republicans’ isolation and their internal divisions -- as a handful of Republicans break ranks and acknowledge the problem is real.

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The intrigue: The juxtaposition was on stark display last week.

    I spent the first half of last week at a major oil and gas conference in Houston, where virtually all executives acknowledged climate change as a pressing issue and a few, including CEOs of major oil companies like BP and Equinor, implored the industry to do more and embrace big policy changes.The second part of the week I was back in Washington, D.C., where Republican leaders of House committees held a press conference to criticize the Green New Deal but didn’t discuss policies they would pursue instead of it.
Where it stands: After a decade of either questioning or ignoring climate change, some Republicans are slowly beginning to discuss the issue. But for now it's mostly rhetoric and it's not enough to convince the majority of the party, and especially Trump, to change their views.

    Trump is considering creating a controversial panel questioning federal climate reports. A senior administration official said the government takes "seriously the issue of climate change and it is important that policies and decision-making be based on transparent and defensible science."The loudest voices in the Republican congressional caucus are those that make inflammatory or bizarre statements, such as likening the Green New Deal to genocide and responding to a question about climate change by explaining photosynthesis.
Between the lines: Those remarks aside, a fundamental difference persists between what most Republicans say should be done about climate change versus almost all other leaders: mostly status quo with incremental bills versus more sweeping policy changes.

    Republicans say what they’re supporting now — relatively narrow bills on topics like carbon-capture technology, hydropower and nuclear power — is sufficient. Zack Roday, spokesman for Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said: “I disagree that those are minor bills — solutions that reduce emissions while expanding America’s renewable energy options matter.” Bigger policies that could more substantially reduce emissions are unpopular with most conservative lawmakers: a price on carbon emissions, regulations or subsidies.Matt Sparks, spokesman for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, said: "Conservatives are leaning into the debate on our future. ... But whether it is a carbon tax or Green New Deal, the conventional conversation in Washington today has impacts that hurt working Americans."
Almost everyone else says far broader policy changes are neededincluding most oil and gas executives, other parts of corporate America, scientists, the United Nations, Democrats, economists, environmentalists, and youth activists.

    There’s big disagreement about what that policy should be, and how to ensure a big reduction in greenhouse gas emissions doesn’t cost too much. Energy costs are traditionally regressive: hitting poorer people more.There's certainly no consensus that it needs to be the Green New Deal, which shows how far some Democrats have shifted to the left. The proposal is a non-binding resolution calling on Congress to pass a 10-year plan drastically reducing emissions and creating government-run health care and job guarantee programs.
At the Houston conference, energy executives and other experts, including Ernest Moniz, President Obama’s former Energy Secretary, said the proposal is unrealistic. Yet amid the criticism, there was widespread agreement the government should be acting more.

“I think there is a general acceptance in the energy industry that there should be some kind of pricing on carbon emissions,” Charif Souki, a pioneer in the natural-gas industry and founder of Tellurian Inc., a Houston-based gas export company, told me on the sidelines of the conference, called CERAWeek by IHS Markit.

On the Green New Deal, Souki said: “This is a bunch of aspirations. Tell me how we’re going to get there and tell me how also we’re going to provide electricity to a billion people who don’t have it.” Yet he said the debate around it is healthy: “That’s part of democracy.”

Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), who is the top Republican on the new select committee Democrats created to discuss climate change, is looking for new bipartisan policies, according to spokesman Kevin Roig.

    One includes making changes to the Climate Change Technology Program to focus on "technologies we can truly commercialize that will result in” lower energy costs and emissions, Roig said.That program dates to 2002 and is led by the Energy Department. Its website isn’t working, and among the only information I could find about it is this 2006 report.
What we’re watching: Whether Republicans support new, more substantive policy, including a price on carbon emissions.

    Two House Republicans, Francis Rooney of Florida and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, support a carbon tax — out of nearly 200 GOP House members.The Climate Leadership Council, a group backed by former Republican politicians and oil companies, has a plan to tax carbon emissions and send the money back to consumers. The leader of that group, Ted Halstead, predicts the Senate will introduce a bill on that policy later this year — with Republican support.


Climate change policy

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Dion Rabouin4 hours ago
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The mixed signals on global trade

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

As the world economy has slowed, economists are beginning to look for signs of whether it's headed toward recovery or recession.

The big picture: One of the most popular metrics is global trade, which unfortunately is flashing divergent signals.

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On one hand: Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, argues that global trade is rebounding. The Harpex and Dry Baltic shipping indexes, which track global container and raw materials shipping, both suggest global trade bottomed toward the beginning of the year and started improving.

    "A pre-condition for being bullish U.S., European, and Asian growth later in 2019 is that we need to see a stabilization in world trade volumes," Slok wrote in a note to clients."So the question is to what degree the observed move higher in prices is enough to signal a coming stabilization in volumes."
On the other hand: The shipping numbers are contradicted by the worsening picture in manufacturing around the world. As we detailed Friday, Germany's manufacturing numbers have been ugly and the same is true for much of the euro zone.

Globally, it's the same story. In February, IHS Markit released its most recent report on global PMI numbers, titled, "Worldwide manufacturing growth close to stalling as trade flows deteriorate."

    The tracker fell to a 33-month low, after hitting its lowest in 27 months in January."The economy is spinning its wheels and not gaining any traction yet in this soft patch produced by trade wars and stock market turbulence and the government shutdown," Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG, told Reuters.
Bloomberg's PMI tracker, which follows every region in the world, shows data have slowly movedtwo levels down from "improving" for much of 2018 to "neutral" at the start of 2019.

    The PMI slump is "alarming in Japan, Korea and Taiwan," and "appears to reflect a disruption in global trade that may relate to US tariff policy," Greg Gibbs, analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, said, according to FXStreet.U.S. PMI fell to its lowest in 18 months. Manufacturing output fell for the second consecutive month in February, the first back-to-back decline since 2017.China, the No. 1 trading partner with most of the world, saw its PMI fall into contraction in February and record the weakest reading since February 2016.
Go deeper: The global economy's road to "Japanization"

International trade

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Axios5 hours ago
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Beto O'Rourke raises $6.1 million in first 24 hours of 2020 campaign



Photo: Stephen Maturen/AFP/Getty Images

Beto O'Rourke raised $6.1 million during the first 24 hours of his 2020 presidential campaign, per the New York Times.

Why it matters: It's a massive haul, topping the $5.9 million raised by Sen. Bernie Sanders over his first 24 hours last month, which capitalized on an established donor network from the Vermont senator's 2016 run.

2020 presidential election

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Dan Primack6 hours ago
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Lyft says it wants to raise $2 billion in IPO



Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

Ride-hail company Lyft on Monday disclosed that it hopes to raise over $2 billion in its IPO, at an initial market cap that could top $19 billion. The company will offer 30.77 million shares at between $62 and $68 per share, with its so-called IPO road-show kicking off today.

The bottom line: The top-range market cap is higher than Lyft's $15 billion valuation when it last raised private funding in the summer of 2018, but the low-range market cap would actually be a bit lower. In both cases, however, the fully-diluted valuation would be significantly higher, at a range of between $23 billion and $25.3 billion.

Lyft

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Alexi McCammond6 hours ago
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Wisconsin swing voters tire of Trump



Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

APPLETON, Wis. — Voters who supported Barack Obama in 2012 and then Donald Trump in 2016 are sick of Trump, saying in a focus group here that they're getting tired of his "lies" and the way he treats people.

Why it matters: Trump barely won Wisconsin, where he got roughly 22,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton, and these swing voters were decisive. If he's losing them, it will be harder to win the state again with just his base supporters.

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    This was the biggest takeaway from the focus group of swing voters I watched last week, conducted by the research firms Engagious and Focus Pointe Global.The group included eight Obama/Trump voters and four Mitt Romney/Hillary Clinton voters.
Be smart: Their unhappiness with Trump reveals a larger re-election problem for him: touting a strong economy and low unemployment numbers isn't cutting it anymore. It's not necessarily his politics that will be his downfall with these Obama/Trump and Romney/Clinton voters; it's his personality.

What they're saying: "I think he’s a dirty crook that lies, cheats, and steals when he can," said George Engelmann, a 49-year-old Obama/Trump voter. "There’s just a plethora of things that are still coming out."

    Although Engelmann said there's nothing Trump has done politically that he disagrees with, "I will definitely take a chance [on a Democrat]" in 2020. "I don't think I'll vote for Trump again. I don't think he'll make it." Adam K., a 47-year-old Obama/Trump voter, said he wishes Trump would own the things he's lied about. "He's been caught in a lot of lies. ... You know, just admit that you made a mistake and say 'I'm sorry, I shouldn't have said that.'"Amanda S., a 39-year-old Obama/Trump voter, said: "He's getting stuff done, but he lies. I don't think he's a very good person, but he's getting stuff done, so it's hard."
He also hasn't convinced Lisa White, a 38-year-old Romney/Clinton voter, to come back to the GOP.

    "He’s done a lot for jobs and the economy, but I’m all about the way people treat people," White said. "And if you’re going to be a jerk, then you kinda don’t need to be the face of America."
The backstory: These folks voted for Trump because they didn't like Clinton, they were single-issue voters in 2016 — on things like abortion — or they liked and believed in Trump's campaign promises.

    Adam K. said he thinks Trump has accomplished a lot of good things politically, but it's harder to support him now because "there's more negativity, more solid evidence of a negative personality. I really wish we had a stronger third party that could actually have their hat in the ring."
"I didn't like Trump, like his TV shows and all that. I never liked him, but I just did really get the sense that he's going to get things done and I just like the straightforward approach that he had and still has."— Allison B., a 36-year-old Obama/Trump voterBetween the lines: While many of these voters are completely disenchanted with Trump, they're not excited about any of the Democratic candidates. The only Democrat they are excited about is Michelle Obama, and she's not running.

    But the things they like about her highlight the qualities they're not seeing in Trump. "She's honest. She has good morals. Her family has been raised properly. There's no hiding with them. You're not going to uncover some funny secret in the past. She is who she is and this is what you get," said White.Others mentioned her values, and said she's optimistic and dynamic.
The bottom line: While politics certainly plays a role for these swing voters, Trump's personality seems to be getting in his own way — and they're less inclined to look the other way again in 2020.

Go deeper: Trump's 2020 map from hell

2020 presidential election

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Rebecca Falconer7 hours ago
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New Zealand PM announces inquiry into attacks, swift gun law changes



Photo: Mark Tantrum/Getty Images

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern expects to detail gun law reforms within days after achieving in principle Cabinet support, she said while announcing an inquiry into the Christchurch mosque attacks.

Details: The inquiry will examine the actions of agencies including the country’s intelligence services in the lead-up to Friday's shootings to see whether anything could have been done differently, Ardern said at a press conference Monday evening local time. Police say assault weapons modified to make them more deadly were used in the attack — all legal under current laws. New Zealand Police Commissioner Mike Bush said they believe the attacker acted alone but may have had support.

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The latest: Christchurch Hospital was treating 31 patients injured in the attacks Monday evening local time — 9 in a critical condition. A 4-year-old was in a serious but stable condition in an Auckland children's hospital. Her father was also transferred to the city.

    The FBI and Australian Federal Police are now on the ground in the country to help in investigations and investigators were assisting in Australian states. Australian suspect Brenton Harrison Tarrant, 28, a self-declared white supremacist, intends to defend himself at trial, Richard Peters, the duty lawyer who represented him in Christchurch District Court Saturday told local media.Australian counterterrorism police raided the house of Tarrant's sister t Sandy Beach, near Coffs Harbour, New South Wales.Christchurch Gun City store owner confirmed he had sold 4 weapons to Tarrant.New Zealand's largest online auction website Trade Me has stopped selling semi-automatic weapons?, as many New Zealanders handed in their firearms to police.An 18-year-old man accused of sharing a livestream of the mosque attacks was remanded in custody after appearing in Christchurch District Court. He's charged charged with offences under NZ's Films Videos and Publications Classification Act.
The big picture: Thousands of people continued to hold vigils. In a powerful tribute, near the memorial for the mosque victims, some students performed a haka — a traditional Maori ceremonial dance.



What's next? Ardern said there would be a national memorial event to commemorate those who were killed in the mosque attacks at a date soon to be confirmed. Hundreds of students gathered at the Deans Avenue Mosque memorial to pay their respects to the massacre victims. Tarrant has been charged with a single count of murder, but police expect to lay more charges.

Go deeper: NZ mosque attack victims' families anxiously wait to bury remains

New Zealand

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Gigi Sukin, Andrew Freedman9 hours ago
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Historic floods cause widespread damage in Nebraska, Iowa



Photo: Nebraska National Guard

At least three people have died after a " bomb cyclone" dumped rain on the frozen Plains late last week, causing record flooding from ice jams and snowmelt along the Missouri and Platte rivers. Dams have been virtually obliterated, levees have failed and entire communities marooned.

The latest: Flood warnings remained in place Sunday evening across eastern Nebraska, parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. The National Weather Service forecast the areas would be subjected to major flooding possibly until Wednesday. The National Guard warned had earlier told Nebraskans the flooding could last for " quite some time."

Details: Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts said it was the worst flooding in Nebraska for at least 50 years. The National Weather Service warned hazardous flooding would likely last throughout the weekend in the state, as well as in south and west central Iowa. The worst affected area would be around the Platte and Missouri rivers.

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The big picture: Throughout Nebraska, rivers were breaking record highs with heavy rain on top of significant snowpack, suddenly thawing ground and a surge of snowmelt traveling from upstream. Ice on rivers were causing ice jams that have exacerbated flooding in some areas.

    In many areas, rivers are hitting levels that are historically unprecedented, and the old records are being exceeded by several feet, which is an unusually high margin for such milestones.“We’re just smashing some records on the big boys, the Missouri and the Platte,” National Weather Service meteorologist Jeremy Wesely told the Omaha World-Herald.
Details: Nebraska Emergency Management Agency spokesman Mike Wight told Reuters one man died trying to tow a trapped car with his tractor when waters swept him away. Another man who died had failed to evacuate, though authorities have yet to determine the cause of death, he said. Another man was trying to tow a trapped car with his tractor when waters swept him away. A third man died when he became submerged in floodwaters in the town of Riverton, the Fremont County Sheriff's Office said, according to NBC News.

    Air Force personnel have been trying to contain flooding at Offutt Air Force Base, home to Strategic Command as well as the fleet of E-4B airborne command aircraft and RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft. Aerial photos on Saturday showed water lapping up against the base's single runway, with some aircraft still parked on the base. Offutt is now the second major U.S air force base to be hit by a weather-related disaster in less than a year, after Hurricane Michael tore through Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida. It said Sunday evening the water had remained at the same level for hours and was not expected to rise.In Fremont, Nebraska, roadways flooded and 2 levees were breached on Saturday morning, according to the Fremont Tribune, requiring mandatory evacuations. There were evacuations along the rising Missouri River and in the town of Brownville, Nebraska. A spokesman for the state's Public Power District told the Omaha World-Herald if the river rises to 45.5 feet, the Cooper Nuclear Power Station — which produces 35 percent of NPPD's power — would be shut down.
Our thought bubble, from Axios science editor Andrew Freedman: These floods are, in parts of Nebraska in particular, worse than longtime residents have experienced and in many cases are downright unprecedented in historical records. This will be a slow-rolling disaster unfolding for the next week as floodwaters move downstream to affect other states in the Mississippi River Valley.



The unprecedented flooding has affected up to 74 million Americans from the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast.

    Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers deployed the state National Guard after declaring an emergency as flooding was magnified by "rapid snowmelt." Columbus, Wisconsin, opened shelters for people who had been evacuated.In Kansas, Gov. Laura Kelly issued a state of emergency for Doniphan County as flash floods wreaked havoc on the community.Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds also issued a disaster proclamation on Friday.




Go deeper: In photos: Staggering destruction from historic flooding in the Plains

extreme weather

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Jonathan Swan17 hours ago
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Inside Rudy's vanishing act



Rudy Giuliani. Photo: Siavosh Hosseini/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Rudy Giuliani has vanished from your television. The last time the president's once-ubiquitous attack dog did a major TV appearance was on Sunday, Jan. 20, when he went on NBC's " Meet the Press" and CNN's " State of the Union."

Between the lines: Sources familiar with Giuliani's thinking say he views a major part of his job as trying to undermine public confidence in the Mueller probe and harden the support of Republican voters for Trump to protect him against impeachment. So for Giuliani to stay off TV for an extended stretch is odd.

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    White House officials had expected Giuliani's Jan. 20 Sunday show appearances to be an easy "victory lap" after Mueller's office took the rare step of publicly disputing a BuzzFeed story accusing Trump of committing a felony.
Instead, Giuliani tripped over himself, saying the Trump Tower Moscow talks may have lasted up until November 2016. The claim was both unhelpful and, in the White House's view, incorrect.

    Giuliani walked back the comments in a statement the next day: "My recent statements about discussions during the 2016 campaign between Michael Cohen and then-candidate Donald Trump about a potential Trump Moscow 'project' were hypothetical and not based on conversations I had with the president."
Since that weekend, the president's most prominent lawyer has kept his head down. He has only made one on-camera appearance: a March 8 hit on the streaming channel of the Washington newspaper The Hill, where he said Paul Manafort's surprisingly short jail sentence was fair.

    Two sources with direct knowledge told me that both Trump and the White House lawyer handling the Russia investigation, Emmet Flood, have privately griped about some of Giuliani's TV appearances.A third source said Trump thought it would be best if Giuliani stayed off TV for a while after his Jan. 20 hits.
Giuliani's response: When I asked Giuliani about all of this, he texted that he has spent hours with Trump in the last month and hasn't heard any complaints about his TV appearances from the president.

    Giuliani then called me to elaborate. He said his decision to stay off TV since Jan. 20 had nothing to do with his performances on those shows."About a month to a month and a half ago we decided, because we thought the Mueller report was imminent in the next four or five days, that it would be better not to comment until the report was filed or made public," Giuliani said."Obviously those days have now expanded way beyond four or five days."
Giuliani said he decided to stay off TV so as "not to upset the apple cart, not to create unnecessary, additional, needless friction" with the Mueller team. I asked the president's lawyer if he thought this brief cease-fire would have a meaningful effect on the Mueller report, given that Giuliani has attacked Mueller and his team relentlessly for the previous year.

    "Yes, because we've had, over a period of time, after we were very tough, we've had some what we regard as very fair decisions, and some that aren't as fair. So we see that there's the capacity to go either way."


Rudy Giuliani

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<<an,

<<The blue wave was, IMO, the result of the women working harder than the men and the country being ready for responsible politics.>>

Look at the women, their policies and the districts where they were running in. If they all won in liberal districts, I stand corrected. If many of their districts were more conservative, an AOC kind of agenda will not work there and if they do adopt this type of agenda, then a lot them may be in Congress for 1 term.
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