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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (896)3/19/2019 5:54:57 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (4) of 1504
 
More than likely it would be Spring 2020 at the earliest. Very little is aligned that I look at to happen this spring or summer which is a much better scenario for Trump as you point out. I imagined the curve flat in the 3.5%+ range and gas prices at least $3.50 nationally and more animal spirits and enthusiasm in the economy with people talking about something besides politics like at the 1987, 1999 and 2006 peaks.. When everyone is in you want to be out. Doesn't seem that way YET.. Longer term interest and gas prices stay low the greater the shock by a decent move up on the economy.. Mortgage rates sensitivity on borrowers with just a half percent move these days. Many overextended, debt levels high, corporate debt levels at record, record three month delinquency auto loans, still very low savings rate, don't even get me started student loans...so all should be dire. But housing never experienced a debt fueled bubble this time, supply overall still tight most markets single family with debt levels quite low as are foreclosures. Can a profits recession trigger an actual recession with negative GDP t two quarters. In a way hope we get the very slow growth here first half 2019...
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