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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Lee who wrote (16516)1/20/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Lee, Another TA comes out of the "closet". I knew you would come out sooner or later. I can't add any more to your excellent post except try to tie in IKe's matif et al to TB. In the "big picture", if S & P 500 earnings rose for '95 by 11%, '96 by 14% and '97 by roughly 10.5% and this years projections around say 7%.... Yet S & P 500 Index has risen at annual rate of roughly a 28% clip since end of '94, one of two things have to happen IMHO. One is future earnings growth must be twice that what it is now. In addition, earnings growth MUST EXCEED these expectations or the stock market will eventually adjust. The second scenario is, and this is what is going on right now, is that LOWER INTEREST RATES HELP EASE THE CONCERN of inflated (or at say high end of historical norm) price/earnings ratios and when rates fall... it's easier to justify current market multiples. Rates have to stay at these levels or expectation that they may go lower still to maintain balance of scales equilibrium... Just some thoughts. JT
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