FIBR Chart & Trendlines [FIBR closed at 4 25/32 on friday, 1/16/98]
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After being in a steady downtrending channel throughout most of 1997, FIBR had a major
breakout in the first trading week of the year, almost doubling its value from january 2nd to
january 8th.
FIBR confirmed a new uptrend on January 13th, by defining a higher low (Jan 12th)
FIBR's volume is at historic levels for the stock, with Jan 8 being the most actively traded
day in its 3+ year history, and these past two weeks are the two most active weeks in that
same history.
This is showing a tremendous amount of accumulation going on, as the downtrend FIBR was in
was a very long time in the making.
FIBR has broken through all the major downtrending lines also supporting a very strong
turnaround. It is too early to get a good idea of the ultimate accelerating trendline FIBR
will be following, but we do have one "anchor" so to speak and that is the low made on
1/12/98. A good uptrend line will be formed once another low is made that is lower than the
prior day low and the next day low. Connect that low with the low on 1/12/98 and FIBR's
uptrend support line will be defined.
Areas of Resistance:
The gap on 8/25/97 is the next major resistance point for FIBR to break through. The close on
8/22 was 5 7/8, so look for FIBR to close above this for another confirmation of its uptrend.
Beyond that, look for horizontal resistence in the 6 1/2 area, and 10 1/2 area. No major
downtrending lines are left to provide resistence at this point so FIBR has a clear path for
a steady uptrend with horizontal resistance helping to pause it along the way.
The all time high for FIBR is 20, and provided FIBR maintains an uptrend channel (continuing
a cycle of defining higher highs and higher lows) there is no reason not to expect FIBR to
return to these levels. Look for a cup with handle to form when/if FIBR returns to the 10 -
11 level, and breaking out of that should take it to the all-time high level.
DeMark Interpretations:
FIBR has recently completed a "sell" sequential setup, having a series of 9 consecutive
closes greater than the close 4 trading days prior from 1/5/98 to 1/15/98. [Note that this is
NOT a sell signal, just the first of three parts (the others of which might not ever happen!)
that would constitute a sell signal). Intersection (close within the trading range 3 days
prior) has not yet happened indicating continuation of the exuberance that has been pushing
this stock upward.
At this point this is a very bullish sign for FIBR, indicating that a whole new supply/demand
dynamic has taken place, very much in favor of demand outweighing supply.
FIBR also broke through the "Thomas Demark Sequential Trendline" (TDST) which is the line
drawn from the high made during the prior buy setup, in this case the high on october 20,
1997 of 4.22.
Notice how price action was turned back on 1/8/98 and closed below this line. And again on
1/14/98, the advance was stopped right at this line.
However, FIBR broke through the following day -day nine of the sell setup, and this implies
that FIBR will finish the sell setup, meaning after intersection it will go through 13
countdown days, not required to be consecutive, where each cowntdown day closes higher than
or equal to the high made 2 days prior.
Now that the TDST has been broken through, we can expect it (4.22) to provide support (on a
closing basis).
Conclusion:
FIBR is in the midst of an impressive technical turn-around. The recently completed sell
setup gives force to the shift in supply/demand dynamics, showing strong and heavy
accumulation.
I see the next strong buy signal coming when the august 1997 gap is filled. (5 7/8)
Finally, look for the next low that will define the uptrend channel for FIBR; this is what
will be the defining support trend line for FIBR's growth.
Given the length of the downtrend FIBR was previously in, and given that the action during
the last two weeks has broken all the major downtrending lines, the outlook for FIBR from a
technical standpoint is very bullish. I would give short (3 months), intermediate (3 - 9
months), and long term (9+ months) targets of 6 1/2, 10 1/2, and 20.
-dave |
