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Technology Stocks : Oak Technology (OAKT)
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To: Baoho Chang who wrote (3833)1/20/1998 1:42:00 PM
From: Nevin S.  Read Replies (1) of 4335
 
Baoho, thanks for the response. You seem to have excellent knowledge of this market segment. My guess is that OAKT will take some time to rebuild institutional investor confidence and its stock price will languish during the interim. Unfortunately I own 400 shrs that I purchased at a much higher basis approx. 2 years ago. But enough about my woes.

In my estimation the transition to DVD will progress at a slow pace. First, most people in the US (also the rest of the world) already own a VCR, so it is not necessary to have a DVD player (especially one that does not record); second, the lack of movie titles available will slow the transition from analog to digital. Everybody agrees the difference in quality and convenience of a DVD over video tape is well worth the cost to upgrade, but people have to have a reason to make that step. In many other instances of technology evolution the impetus is backward compatability (the new technology allows you to use your older format). With DVD this is not the case, you can't play a video on DVD (remember, there are a lot of people out there with Disney movies). So, the driving force in this transition will be the availability of new titles on DVD and recordability.

The other side of the transition will be in PC's. Play only DVD will allow people to play games on their computer (something you can do today with a CD-ROM). When you are able to record on DVD, some people might see this as a substitute for an Iomega drive or tape backup. Again, the cost/benefit is not there (without recordability) to drive the transition to DVD among PC users.

Thoughts, comments anyone?
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