We are not starting a war with China over these islands.
No... but they are. If the other guy wants a fight, your no vote doesn't count. China wants a fight. Timing is about the only question left... but, other than that, they're essentially no different than Japan in the 1930's.
We have too much FACE involved to let the Chinese have them.
We will live up to our mutual defense obligations with Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and others.
Pentagon Approves $500 Million Taiwan F-16 Support Program Amid Chinese Threats.
We need a non-war solution. I see no other way out except to convince China we will cut off all financial and trade with them unless they back off.
The assumption that those two things are compatible is probably wrong. The Chinese will view things differently than that, certainly. First, they will assume that in terms of trade, that our positions on Senkaku's, Spratley's and Taiwan are only "chips" that we're using in "negotiating" trade... as here: “Over the coming year, the US might use Taiwan and the South China Sea as bargaining chips to get what it wants from China with regards to the trade war,” he said. Or, here: "Despite fears of an invasion, exacerbated by [ed. China's] combat drills near Taiwan, SOAS University of London’s China Institute director and political scientist Steve Tsang told Newsweek last year that the PLA is unlikely to launch a military attack unless a deal is in place with the Trump administration to prevent U.S. interference".
They are expecting us to value trade with them more than anything else... and they expect us to . make a deal with them by May. that has us "greenlighting" what they're planning to do anyway. They assume that we will be happy to surrender the SCS and Taiwan to sustain trade. They're wrong... but, we don't see the world the way they do. If and when they don't get their way on those things... they're likely to initiate war anyway... . probably in 2020.
Are we going to push this until we have a ship battle set off?
We're not the ones pushing. And a couple of ships bumping is the least of our concerns... Western analysts think: “China does not have the capability to do it [ed. take Taiwan] in the next five years. If they did, an invasion could lose them most of their frontline, advanced equipment and troops in the process," he said. But China's own internal assessments aren't close to agreement with that... they are expected to be ready for war, next year. Which analysts are right ? That's the wrong question... because its asking about analyst expectation re readiness and outcome in the event, not the likelihood of misjudgment by China's leadership opting for war... sooner. They are expecting us to blink, backdown, and greenlight them to take Taiwan, and the PI/SCS... and, failing that, they are expecting to launch and win an almost bloodless and overwhelming victory, after sinking our carriers... because of new asymmetric capabilities... including carrier killer missiles, and . lasers. They think sinking a couple carriers will "chase us away" in retreat... believing that we're too afraid of casualties to fight a war with them... even if they provoke it.
Also, don't think of this being SCS or trade in isolation... its also about Venezuela., 5G Spytech. and Human Rights. along with other things ?
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