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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 362.31-1.8%Nov 4 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (148110)4/29/2019 8:01:46 AM
From: dvdw©  Read Replies (1) of 217541
 
The subject being; how to Identify Spurious Correlations. ISP

A primary historical example as an outtake from your submitted piece.

"Not everybody lost out. Richard Cantillon, an Irish economist living in France, made a fortune (it’s not every day that an Irishman gets to take all the money from a Scotsman’s wallet). Cantillon had sold short the shares of the bank, and for good measure also sold the French currency against sterling. In his Essay on Commerce (a must-read), Cantillon became the first scholar to explain the difference between the creation of money and the creation of wealth, and that the first did not automatically lead to the second.

Cantillon further understood and explained that if the government is intent on destroying the local currency, then those who are the closest to the central bank will make money, while the rest of the population will end up on the losing side. Since dubbed “the Cantillon effect”, this understanding foreshadowed the Wall Street versus Main Street debate ignited by the era of zero interest rate policies over the past decade."

All control units live at a trough of Spurious Correlations. Identifying them requires Objectivity and thoughtfulness as well as working knowledge of how RO/RS=CF
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