Don't disagree in terms of the risk factors you note... but what's missing is any proper accounting for the future values...
And future values always will be in error in the same or larger degree than they fail to properly account for changes that address underlying elements...
Homeostatic systems... very common in biology... are those with both a gas pedal and a brake... with function determined by how much gas versus how much brake. An auto is a good exemplar. Put both pedals to the floor... and get smoke, noise, vibration... not motion... or, from full speed take your foot off the one and put it to the floor on the other... and experience change. Balance is assumed to be... using one or the other, depending on the need... and we assume that is true, also, of the tools applied in managing the economy... so that raising rates is the brake, and lowering them is the gas ? But, if you're not starting from a neutral assumption... with only one or the other applied at a time... but from a state where you're traveling 50 mph... with gas pedal to the floor, and the brakes smoking ? What happens, then, if you remove the brake, or remove the gas ?
What's the reality in the economy... in terms of how much gas versus how much brake... being applied now ?
If money is the gas... lower Fed rates is more, higher Fed rates is less... and the brake is a constant ? What is the brake ? How much of it do we see being applied right now ?
Might it be possible to remove the brake... or alter its function ?
If you were to consider "currency manipulation" in that context... how would you describe it ?
What would happen if the brake and the gas pedal... got wires crossed, somehow, to reverse the effects ?
Might it be possible to... change where we buy our gas ?
Might it be possible... to fire the driver for reckless behavior... and hire a new one, or even go with a self driving system instead ?
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