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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 348.14

+3.2%

Jan 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: bigchad who wrote (83209)	5/4/2019 2:17:47 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) of 95748

SIMO's results had some discontinued operations confusion as a result of the planned sale of their FCI division, which had ~$30m in 2018 sales. But the H2 guidance remains fairly incredible compared to H1. If they can actually deliver on this guidance, I will be amazed. Excluding FCI, Q1 was $89m, Q2 is guided to ~$104m, and then H2 in order to make 2019 revenues about the same as 2018 revenues, needs to be $300m. So, from $104m in Q2 to $150m in Q3 and Q4. Good luck! They also say that their second half visibility is much lower than normal. Given that they don't have visibility (firm orders), ya got me as to how they can forecast such amazing revenue growth. I think their theory is that the NAND makers have way too much raw NAND inventory on their balance sheets, and when they sell it (at whatever price they sell it) a lot of it needs to put a SIMO SSD controller along with it. So there is a flood of cheap NAND sales coming, and enough of them will incorporation a SIMO controller than SIMO's revenues need to rocket up at some point. I guess! Never seen a company guide revenues up 50% sequentially, and in the same conference call tell us that they haven't got firm orders and visibility is way below average.......but we'll see what happens.....

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