Bill,
I assume you're talking about the last 30 minute bounce in Vix that came close to triggering your sell signal.
I also use Vix as one of my top 5 indicators for market direction, with the understanding that when vix bottoms, the market tops, and vice-versa. So when market direction is unclear based upon the S-T index price charts, I'll rely heavily upon the Daily or 30 Minute Vix Chart to determine the current trend and potential change thereof in the market. I've found that it's ability to predict turns in the market is uncanny.
Right now, with vix at 21.690 I see it in a descending triangle formation, and would not turn s-t bearish unless it took out 23-24. Of course, I believe it will actually continue to trend down, and find a tight range in the upper teens during most of this bull run. The actual target of the descending triangle formation is 17.5, so a break of 20 will certainly target that area, with further downside possible.
Would love to know more about how you apply M/A's and other tech. indicators to acquire reliable signals...Is there a prior post you could point me too?
Thanks for all your hard work on this thread. I believe you and the others here have made it the best at SI and on the web for that matter. It's meant a great deal for me to be able to crosscheck my opinions on the market with your's and others on this thread. Thanks for the warm welcome, and I hope to be able to contribute insight from time to time that will be valuable for you and the readers here.
Warm Regards,
David |
