Catlady: Here's some info on Fibonacci numbers and their use for time periods. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with it, just presenting it:
TASC, V. 2:2 (66-73): FIBONACCI FORECAST EXAMPLES by Tucker J. Emmett
--------------------------------
The Fibonacci Series is a succession of integers as follows: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, . . . etc., each successive number in the series being the sum of the two previous. The ratio between successive numbers in the series approaches .618, or inversely, 1.618. These ratios are extremely important.
My Fibonacci approach to the futures markets involves subdividing each market into three specific categories: Pattern, Ratio, and Time.
<<Here's what he says about Fib time periods in particular:>>
(3) Time -- The third category, and perhaps the most decisive of the three, is the time frame during which a market carries out its bull or bear price action. Many years ago, I adopted the term 'cycle' to describe the time frame between price swings, this term is generally used by the trade today. 'Cycle' was used because the markets appear to complete a full bull move, or a full bear move, within a specific time cycle. And this time cycle is delineated by the Fibonacci series itself. Since, for my clients, I am concerned largely about the longer term cycles, I generally ignore the shorter term (3 day, 5 day, 8 day, 13 day) cycles, and concentrate on the 3 week (21 day), 5 week (34 day), 8 week (55 day), 13 week (89 day), 21 week (144 day) and so on. The longer term cycles tend to mark the major turning points of markets, and naturally the major turning points are what all traders are gunning for.
Summary:
To sum it all up, my Fibonacci approach is based upon an accurate analysis of the Pattern, Time, and Ratio of each market involved. In my eleven years of trading, both for myself and my customers, I have found no more accurate or helpful system than this application of the Fibonacci series to the futures markets.
Tucker Emmett is a cum laude graduate from Harvard University where he studied mathematics and economics. In 1970 he was awarded the Juris Doctor degree from the University of Virginia Law School. He is a registered representative in securities and commodities and is a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He writes a bi-weekly review published by Anspacher on grains, meats, metals, and currencies.
|
