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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: DJBEINO who wrote (19732)1/20/1998 8:48:00 PM
From: George Papadopoulos  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Lan Times January 19.1998 issue

lantimes.com

Novell starts to see the
light in connectivity

By Philip Allen Johnson

hings have looked gloomy for Novell Inc. lately, but
there may be some light at the end of the tunnel.

Several years ago Novell was the driving force in PC
connectivity, with roughly 70 percent of the NOS market.
Then Microsoft Windows NT Server came bursting on to
the scene. International Data Corp. estimates that in 1997
Microsoft Corp. sold more than a million copies of NT
Server. The majority of those sites might otherwise have
bought NetWare (or IntranetWare).

Trends seem to indicate that Novell is selling fewer licenses
but getting more revenue from the licenses it does sell. This
suggests that corporate users are consolidating to fewer
NetWare servers, but bigger servers that support more
clients. Many of these seem to be longer-term Novell sites
in larger corporations. Windows NT's greatest success has
been in penetrating newer, smaller sites and corporations.

The major attack point that Microsoft has been using
against Novell is NT's capability as an applications server.
Windows NT has a rich environment for applications
developers, offering easy-to-use tools, a reasonably solid
platform for their applications, and Microsoft's established
leverage on the desktop. Novell's NLM environment is
more difficult for developers. NT also has been leveraging
other BackOffice components such as Microsoft Exchange
and SQL Server.

In new territory
Novell's advantage lies in its installed base. In round
numbers, 80 percent of all large corporations have
NetWare as part of the computing landscape, primarily for
PC file and print services. They normally don't throw out
current working solutions just because new technology
becomes available. On the contrary, they first try to find
new uses for existing solutions.

Some corporations are beginning to use their existing
NetWare servers as high-speed intranet servers. They see
this as a way to gain access to their own wealth of
information stored on departmental and corporate PC
servers.

Of course, the first job of a World Wide Web server is to
receive a browser request, find the corresponding HTML
(HyperText Markup Language) file on disk, and transmit it
over the network. Although the protocols used are
somewhat different, this is fundamentally the same job that
NetWare servers have been doing for PCs. Refocusing this
functionality on the Web makes sense for Novell and opens
some interesting growth opportunities.

Despite this foundation, to be successful in this new
direction Novell needs help on the applications-server front.
It looks like help may be on its way. Oracle Corp. would
love to see Novell succeed, particularly if that success
comes at a cost to Microsoft.

After successfully serving HTML-based and Sun
Microsystems Inc. Java-based applications, next on the list
for a Web server is to serve databases. Last month Oracle
announced the availability of Oracle8 and Oracle
Application Server on the Novell platform. This partnership
gives IntranetWare a reasonably complete solution as a
Web server for intranet applications and database
management.

Novell's announcements regarding Moab, the next release
of IntranetWare, indicate its efforts to provide services in
the Java applications environment. Oracle, JavaSoft Inc.,
and others are supporting this work. If they can
demonstrate that IntranetWare is the fastest, most
manageable, and least costly Java platform, Novell could
win corporate business from organizations that are
committed to developing in Java.

As noted above, the first place these IntranetWare servers
will be deployed is in Novell's installed base. The key for
Novell is not so much to open new sites as to continue
growth based on happy customers at current sites. This is
the key to blunting the Microsoft attack.

A high-performance, general-purpose Web server with
integrated database capabilities goes a long way toward
addressing the applications server needs of many
departmental and corporate users. After a long time in the
dark, Novell may see that glimpse of light.

Philip Allen Johnson is a market-research consultant in
Fremont, Calif. Contact him at paj@pajc.com.
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