Hi el,
Yes it is.
We in the U.S. suffered greatly from the exodus of our manufacturing sector.
What is all but impossible, is recovering from the excess capacity that is left behind.
In the case of the U.s., a lot of it was already depreciated.
China will have a lot of new facilities standing empty, unless they wake up and wise up regarding their illegal activities - intended to dominate the world's production needs.
That was always China's error. They thought they could harness their cheap labor and produce items for the whole world.
Their increased costs of labor have created better opportunities to manufacture else where.
As robotics continue their advance, cheap labor becomes displaced.
The trade war will bring home the higher margin manufacturing jobs for robots to do the work.
No unions, no labor costs, just machine maintenance - which is constant anywhere.
That transition - to whatever degree of size, will simply add to the world's excess capacity.
Enter Vietnam, Laos, Africa, and the loss of manufacturing in China becomes compounded.
They will proudly and stubburnly assure that thier pain levels will be maximized.
I have always thought that globalization was an attempt to diminish the power of unions with in the US.
Globalization has indeed accomplished its goal.
Manufacturing will return. The cheap labor achieved the destruction of unions and their influence.
Enter G5 and artificial intelligence through robots and you have better quality and cheaper products with out the unions again.
A final transition to the more efficient model via technology.
This is a development that the U.S. must embrace.
Trumps tax rewrite for corporations has provided the conduit for it to be accelerated.
Thus the delinking of the US economy vs the rest of the world and more impactfully, to the loser of the transition, China.
It may be an oxymoron, but the proud people of China need to understand their position in the world. It is not the manufacturing center for the world. They must succumb to serving the needs of their substantial population.
That does not entail stealing trade secrets from every one else and build ing it for every one!
Bob |
