The table below lists the winners today. Though many are left out, it
should be easy to see who are the double digit gainers today. The #1
group winner is land, followed by the shallow water, followed by the
deepwater. FGII is another story altogether. Pity those UFAB
holders. Really no surprise - those which fell the hardest also
bounced the sharpest.
SLB 80 1/8 +2 3/16 +2.81% 2,332,600 King
SDC 39 3/16 +1 7/16 +3.81% 249,900 Deep
FLC 32 5/16 +2 1/16 +6.82% 682,700 Deep/Shallow
NE 28 9/16 +13/16 +2.93% 1,836,300 Deep/Shallow
DO 45 15/16 +2 3/16 +5.00% 1,429,400 Deep
RIG 43 1/2 +2 +4.82% 1,144,000 Deep
RDC 28 9/16 +1 9/16 +5.79% 1,196,700 Deep/Shallow
ESV 29 3/4 +2 1/4 +8.18% 1,192,700 Deep/Shallow
MDCO 19 9/16 +2 +11.39% 3,854,800 Shallow
GLM 24 7/8 +2 9/16 +11.48% 4,374,100 Shallow/Deep
CDG 45 5/8 +4 1/16 +9.77% 469,800 Shallow
PDE 22 13/16 +1/2 +2.24% 348,200 Shallow/land
GW 5 1/8 +7/8 +20.59% 1,539,900 Land
PTEN 27 1/16 +2 13/16 +11.60% 674,000 Land
UTI 18 1/4 +1 3/8 +8.15% 407,000 Land
BDI 14 1/8 +1 3/8 +10.78% 357,500 Land
NBR 28 +1 9/16 +5.91% 1,523,400 Land
PDS 19 1/2 +1 1/16 +5.76% 324,300 Land
FGII 28 +4 +16.67% 1,159,800 Fab
RON 57 1/4 +2 11/16 +4.93% 596,900 Service
EVI 47 1/16 +2 1/4 +5.02% 828,000 Tube
Checked some selected charts and here are my estimated upper BB for
tomorrow.
MDCO 21
NE 31
GLM 26
FLC 35
DO 49
GW 5 7/8
UTI, PTEN, BDI - way to go before hitting upper BB.
I can't predict the future, and please don't tag the g word on me. I
don't want to hand my head to anybody. After seeing what you guys did
to PEngr, it really scares me. All I have is a time machine in my
basement. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. My neighbors
call me the mad scientist with a driving garbage disposal, but I just
happened to find it in the laboratory they kicked me out from. Just
lucky you see.
If one draws the support downtrend line and connect the three peaks
since Nov, this rally certainly broke that trendline for a lot of
offshore drillers. Based on that, the news is either neutral (going
into trading range) or bullish (going up from here). The long
stochastics, which I cherished so much in a well behaved long term
uptrend, may become predictive again. One never knows until one full
short cycle is fulfilled though. Right now the stochastics is heading
strongly up from the bottom. It will take at least one more week of
neutral trading or upward bias to get there across the 80% line (per
IQC). However, this is purely based on the momentum money that came
in the last two days continuing and the overall market is stable and
the crude price is stable. Too many if's. I don't have a good
feeling about the Asian markets going into the end of January.
A more convenient predictor is the upper BB. If the overall market
opens tomorrow and goes higher, we will likely see a continuation of
the rally tomorrow morning. Then we will get another consolidation.
In the past bullruns (Sept 1997) I had seen trading pattern like today
being sustained for 3-4 trading days! But that was at the peak of the
bull run. Interestingly, it was during the earning season. OK. In
the evemt we have another 10% runup in the next day or two, a lot
of the off-shore drillers will come face to face with the upper BB.
There will be sharper profit taking at this critical level.
Scenario 1. The stock price can go higher (riding the wave) which
will be the confirmation of a trend-turnaround with the completion of
a higher monthly high by end of Jan 1998. This is still too bullish
for me. With the many concerns not yet resolved, I'd say this
scenario is less than 50%. Don't believe the mo-money will not take
profit.
Scenario 2. The stock price goes side way in +/- 10% range for one
week with the contraction of the BB envelop. Then we can go either up
or down decisively thereafter.
Scenario 3. The stock price hits the upper BB wall and shorts come
back. Back down 15-25%, somewhat like what we have had. But the
bottom did not go lower than the previous low. This will be the clear
sign of a trading range pattern.
Scenario 4. The stock price can't even touch the upper BB and start
sliding tomorrow. Then history may repeat itself and PEngr get his
head back. The overall market will have to tank and crude also goes
towards $15. Scary and the shorts are back singing.
Take your pick. I'm conservative this time and pick #2. |
