I think a few theories, conjectures, contentions, guesses, and suppositions are about to be tested
(1) Apple w/ market cap of 900B may close 29% of toppling revenue, and therefore a good part of profit and growth, w/ all that entailed. I say may because as long as Apples are made in China would be sold in China. Whether folks in China buy or not is an open question. I do not believe the team China authorities would go after Foxxconn, because Mr Gou is Mr Gou of KMT, and KMT is of Taiwan. All very delicate, until not. Am wondering how much of Foxxconn debt is from non-China banks, an important number.
(2) Global hardware industry may suffer a cardiac event, and all that would mean to downstream goods, services, and accompanying software
(3) Global cooperation stops for just about any and everything, as the continental economies take care off own and the banana / dependent states fend for selves
(4) The light shall likely be switched off in the party room, and all kinds of goings on should happen that couldn't when the lights were on
(5) Governments would need to control as much as can, and ... well ... am suspicious about what could happen to authorised / sanctioned gold trading, never mind about what must happen to crypto anything
(6) Some very large companies may die, but die last, and certain flavours of startups should wilt soon enough
(7) Some national telecoms shall blackout until not all around the planet
(8) All the innards already embedded in products, be they planes or autos, now all suspect
Nothing priced-in.
Dispassionately, and academically, all very exciting. Real world experience should also be exciting. For those forced to ride out the storm unable to sell / hedge, maybe too exciting. For those looking for break in the market, the pace is too slow.
2019 / 2020, 2026 / 2032 |
