Seems that 60 - excuse me - 30 is the magic number. This is how I see CPQ's near-term future, keeping as neutral a perspective as possible:
Bullish aspects:
1. The split will attract the Wade Cook crowd, buying OTM calls (35s?) for February or March, and pushing the stock price up for at least a day or two. If that surge brings in the big buyers, it'll be the start of a great run upward; the catalyst to a reaction, if you will allow me the analogy.
2. Everyone expects earnings to be good, maybe even spectacular.
3. Techs in general are coming in with earnings near estimates or above this quarter.
4. Tons of publicity within the past month.
Bearish considerations:
1. The tech-heavy NASDAQ is at the top of its trading range, and may very well take a dive tomorrow.
2. Japan is up 1% so far tonight, Hong Kong is down 2%, and South Korea down over 5%. Some techs exposed to Korea will take a hit, and CPQ may respond sympathetically.
3. The trendline is still down, below intermediate-term relevant moving averages. Look at a chart and see what a tough time CPQ had getting up through the 50-day MA in March/April. That MA subsequently provided good support in June.
4. Since the earnings for this quarter are probably going to be good, it may already be reflected in the price. There will be a lot of focus on the next quarter and what management says in the conference call.
5. Someone, somewhere, has been selling this stock aggressively and systematically into rallies since October. I'd like to know who and why.
Good luck, everyone!
RS |
