under conditions of war, and trade-war is less about trade and more about war, capabilities and capacities matter, IP less so if at all, and
under above scenario, ARMS matter not at all, certainly not the day after rare earth embargo
should IP still matter, then 5G does not work w/o team Huawei IP bag, whilst team Huawei has made ample prep for ARM-less protocol, that which takes less time to tee-up than any rare earth workaround
I think
the only question is how far are the players willing to press the trade war
currently, as far as team china is concerned, all-the-way / long-haul / attrition / people's war, so it seems
do not believe 'it is easy' trump counted on the team china that says "no", whereas I had always believed "no" means "no" after exhaustion of all the talking done.
in the mean time am looking at prospective deflation of certain things and potential inflation of other things, and believe as well positioned as can be
Am anticipating BABA to sound the bugle call to rejuvenate freedom Hong Kong
Am counting on team America to sanction a China bank to start tearing apart the international system
After above, a material hack of major banks.
Such hacks must have been experimented by many parties, and the offended banks kept quiet. Now, who knows which of the many players around the world would tee-up an action.
Observation: nothing bad is priced-in |
