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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Holdings

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To: tommysdad who wrote (96)	1/21/1998 1:13:00 AM
From: Mike Heimbuch	Read Replies (1) of 224

hello thanks for taking time to reply - You are probably right re: the Ligand partnership making Lilly unlikely as a Chinese partner. I think I was told by an impeccable source that it was not Bristol Meyers. Could be wrong - but it doesn't leave much room for many others- both headquarted in Manhattan and operating at a fairly visible level in china - the China pharma marketletter told me that much. I was told by this source that there are companies to watch out for - and the one doing the china animal testing is -by his experience and extremely reputable corporation. I believe there is no interest in Biotech Holdings for several very good reasons: And I must say my opinion is developed using - the absence of fraud - and the assumption of drug viability - as givens: But here goes - The drug was developed utilizing connections in China which gave access to military hospitals and perhaps political connections for approvals. The excitement of having so many potential patients in the country and the desire to maximize profits - led to an unreasonably optimistic marketing strategy which has subsequently proven unfounded. I was told that Diab revenues are not broken out in the quarterlies because they would be too disappointing for investors - who unfortunately have been told too many times by the company that prosperity was just around the corner. Fortunately there are enough non-Diab revenues to keep the company afloat. So the company has gotten stock and PR advisors - as well as a medical/science/marketing advisor - all of whom are slowing bringing shape to a company which had practically zero pharmaceutical, international, marketing, stock, investor - knowledge and experience. So - they are chastened - they no longer are trotting out the rainbow for us to look at - and instead are focusing on groundwork for eventual S. American sales - and the simultaneous phase III work for DIAB. I believe it is in the Carib - but I could be very wrong. I was told again - by an unimpeachable source - that we will never hear about this drug from any major pharma - until they have it nailed down. Also - that every major company in the world but two have asked for the drug. The other major possibility is the chance of developing a serious Chinese J/V with this major partner - and the obvious N. American - European fallout which it could likely step into. This - as you can see - is putting the best face on all of it - and I think it is best - that there is no interest in the Stock at this point. It means - on one hand - that no hype is going on - and that we must-and will wait for serious science to lead the way. We will know within 3 months probably - whether or not all of our money is wasted. This - is still a one trick pony - unlike a Ligand - but my goodness - if this drug does what Rezulin tried to do - on a safer basis - who knows where it will lead. The most intriguing thing about this company - and this comes from the outside sort of - is the risk that some companies and individuals are taking to align themselves with the product given the incomplete profile which exists at this point in time. Unorthodox - is the functional word - and it describes Biotech's activities to a tee. Hope this doesn't sound too off base - I am quite tired tonite- and as usual - long winded. Mike H

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