Satyr ; Do you day trade ? I think we are on differnt wave lenths
as to market timing. So far this eve I'm getting mixed signals
from quote.yahoo.com but not down signals.
I disect the DOW and S&P , the 10 MEGA caps vs the 20 Smallers one and I dont let them overlap, same with other indexes, even the
weighted ones are not weighted correctly.
Mega caps lead the herd, by that I don't mean they always move
faster, or are higher or lower but they signal the turns fairly
good "if" you watch the "rate" of change between the two.
Towards a top The Mega caps slow, and the smaller ones (tails )keep on
keeping on, often runing up the index even after half the Megas have
started making negitive numbers so the ( MEGAs often go just a little
negitive while the index is still going up, and the buying frenzy
is still on, ( this is the tail wagging the dog ) as things back off on the Mega caps frist, then as they creep down a bit people wake up, and the selling really begins.
At the bottom the Megas find support while the smaller
ones keep running down, and taking the index with them.( again the
tail wagging the dog ) But after the MEGAs get going up, the others turn to follow. ( the tail wags the dog a lot and that's why
canned TA won't, don't and can't work on an index good enough
to do anything but cause you wip lash 80% of the time.
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Well thats just one indicator, "but it's a strong one". I also
look at A/Ds but in several ways. Then check the currency markets
for any meaningful changes, as well as interest rates.
Lately intersest rates stoped copolating with equities, but will
join back up when they go back up a little, or go down a lot more,
right now the connection is broke or actully inversed from
the norm.
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All this to say the strongest indicator turned on after burners
at 2pm today..that kind of momentume in the MEGA caps doesn't
look like any last breath to me. Most of the gain came 2pm and on.
MEGAs up 2.02% today ; 5.73 % since I called the up market last
Monday a week ago.
Tails up 1.1 % today ; 2.83 % since Monday a week ago
MEGAs in the Tech sector also have on the after burners..
When the % rate of climb goes to the tails , I will think she
is running out of steam. Todays rate T1.1/M2.02 = T .54 of M
week rate T2.83/M5.73 = T.49 of M so the tail % rate is gaining, and
the up sign is not as strong for the day as it averaged for the
week..but it's still strong. These signs can reverse kinda fast
but till they do I would not bet against them or go short.
If T rate gets even with M rate of climb or M starts down
and T don't and you get a positve number then she is topping.
Other things can effect this, it don't always rain just because
the barometer is low or it's cloudy ..but I don't see much to
change it , the only blip right now is a mixed signal from
the foreign markets, more often than not they are in shock
and looking for direction. EWS may offer a buying opertunity
in the morning..shes not going to stay cheap very much longer
before going up. A new U.S. Naval Station is going in there.
Last breath looks more like she is getting her second wind to me.
Since I started this system I've been wrong about one call out
of six.
Jim
quote.yahoo.com |
