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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading SPY and DIA for Fun & Profit
SPY 681.89+0.3%Oct 31 5:00 PM EST

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To: Satyr who wrote (15)1/21/1998 4:02:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins   of 130
 
Satyr; Well you can look and likly do look at the tick, and Trin
during the day, I do to but that didn't show the 2pm rocket
till she was well under way.
I have not yet got one perso who was already into TA to understand
why it won't, don't and can't work on an index.
They seem so convinced TA is the end all, inside the index several
things are happening..worst with the DOW..the S&P some better
but weightings are old, and comingaled ..smaller cap stocks can
and do at times take strong contraol of the index, they can do
this with big price changes that are not really relitive to the
volume , and index gives history old history at that, and not
always honest in itself about the direction "the volume of money
is moving " and it's that volume of money thats moving that
really makes the market, not 10 20 0r even a 100 stocks going up
some big amount on small volume( while tons of shares on a few
MEGA caps go the other way often not effecting the index because
the price change on thoes few was smothered out by the tails. )
I have watched the tail wag the dog to much, to ever for one
minute think that an index itself is telling the truth about the
real market just because it goes up or down.
Do you understand the market can be falling and the idexes all
going up..well it can ! Just how can you TA something like
that. ?
Dollars most of them had already gone on vacation, before the
broad decline in stock prices on OCT 27th , the market really
started a declined back in July. Dollars had pulled out nice and
sneaky like then the bulls found out they had no buyers.
And then the indexes caught up with and reported history. That history
was in the making for almost 3 months. MEGA caps are not fairly represented in any index, by their nature these few represent
so much of the trade going on..and should not be mixed
with others. GE goes up $1 and UK goes DOWN $1 all else the same
the DOW index won't move..yet I can tell you at least 200 times
more money went into the market than went out of it...200 TIMES
MORE, and the index didn't move. Same thing other way around.
What Im doing is very simple, it just takes a little work.
Jim

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