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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: ryanaka who wrote (1137738)5/30/2019 4:16:20 PM
From: ryanaka  Read Replies (1) of 1574485
 
  • Before and into the 2001 recession, this spread doubled from around 12 percentage points to 24 percentage points.
  • During the Financial Crisis, this spread more than quintupled from 7 percentage points in mid-2007 to 37 percentage points at the end of 2008, as junk bonds essentially collapsed.
  • During the oil bust, from July 2014 to February 2016 – the US economy got uncomfortably close to a recession in late 2015 and early 2016 – this spread tripled from 7 percentage points to over 20 percentage points.
And in today’s scenario?

Since December 24, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped 50 basis points (half a percentage point) and the yield curved sagged in the middle and partially inverted. In many people’s minds, this is screaming “recession” in every direction. Inverted-yield-curve-and-recession talk is now everywhere.
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