Ukraine Miscalculation
' In Ukraine, Russia is accused of a waging a massive media and Internet-based influence campaign during the recent presidential elections. Russia wanted to get rid of the incumbent president (Petro Poroshenko) because he was not only pro-West but had managed to organize a coalition of Western nations willing to actively support Ukraine. The Russians were initially satisfied when a political newcomer, Volodymyr Zelensky, was elected president with 73 percent of the vote. Zelensky was indeed a newcomer but proved a lot more capable than the Russians expected, and in a short time proved to be more of a threat than the guy he replaced. The new president is the son of two Ukrainian engineers, is an ethnic Russian (from east Ukraine) and Jewish. Born in 1978 he got a law degree but rather than becoming a lawyer he got into the entertainment business as a writer, director, producer and performer. His most recent (early 2018) production was a popular TV comedy in which he played a comedian who gets elected as an anti-corruption president of Ukraine. Noticing how popular his TV show was and how many Ukrainians saw it as an alternative to the endlessly corrupt leaders (including Poroshenko) who kept getting elected, he decided to run for president. He was overwhelmingly popular and made no specific promises other than to bring in honest and competent people to run the government. Zelensky is willing to negotiate an end to the Donbas war and is pro-West and wary of Russia. He ignored the mass media during his short (he declared he was running on January 1, 2019) campaign, considering the mass media corrupt and basically serving as compliant PR for whoever (including the Russians) was willing to pay. He took power on May 28th. Zelensky understands that presidential power is limited and that parliament must cooperate to get a lot of important things done. There are parliamentary elections in October, which provides an opportunity to back authentic pro-reform candidates. Zelensky appears to understand that he could be part of the solution to a lot of problems but by himself cannot do it.
Zelensky and most Ukrainians noted how Russia sought to influence the presidential elections and any similar effort during the October elections will backfire even more than the presidential election propaganda campaign did. Russia thought Zelensky too inexperienced to handle Russian leaders but Zelensky understands that as well, and is assembling experienced advisors to guide him through any negotiations. Zelensky still has opponents inside Ukraine, ranging from pro-Russian groups to fans of the old way of doing things. Ukrainians voted for change, except the 27 percent that opposed Zelensky. Many of those opponents have vested interests in the corrupt way of doing things and are not going to remain quiet about their hostility to whatever the new government does or how it does it.
If Zelensky succeeds it will be a disaster for the Russian government because more and more Russians are noting that the democracy in Ukraine is more popular among Ukrainians because the national government is not dominated by former Soviet Union era KGB secret policemen along with billionaires who got, and remained rich by cooperating with the KGB cartel that has been in power since 1999. That is a major reason why the Russian government wants Ukraine to fail so it can be “rescued” by Russia. That scam has been used many times over the last five centuries and Ukrainians do not want to suffer another such rescue.
In Donbas, the war continues to simmer. The latest ( December 29th) ceasefire was violated days after it was signed and the violations continue with heavy attacks on Ukrainian troops. The attackers, many of them Russian, suffer casualties as well but the Ukrainians hold their positions and have even managed to regain some ground against the less enthusiastic “rebels.” Ukraine points out that 32 percent of their military dead in Donbas were suffered after the original 2015 ceasefire was signed. This ceasefire has been continually violated with numerous small attacks and renewed, only to be violated once more. The front lines have remained stable but the casualties have continued to occur, to local civilians as well as armed forces on both sides of the ceasefire line.'
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