If you, the oil market, and the stock market believe that on this issue, stability and predictability have improved, then more power to you.
It's true that Iran will suffer badly (as will the ROW) if open warfare closes the Gulf of Hormuz. That calculation drives the market's perception that nothing serious will occur.
Unfortunately, it's also true that there's warfare within Islam, in which T and the US are backing Saudi Arabia and hitting Iran with economic sanctions. Russia and China have sided with Iran.
Iran's Houthi proxy is lobbing missiles into Saudi Arabia. While once such missiles were crude and ineffective, Iranians are now supplying weapons of increasing sophistication, range, and destructive power -- and will continue to do so.
In this contested and hostile arena, a mistake, a miscalculation -- by even a minor player -- can trigger rapid runaway consequences.
"No problem! Chill. We've got it all under control." That's what you, the markets, and T are saying.
I disagree. |
