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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Alec Epting who wrote (1101)1/21/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
Alec, thanks for the link to your ADSL comments on AOL. Can you give a layman's terms explanation of the always connected and bundled with phone service angles of ADSL. If you mean what I think, it seems one might actually save money using ADSL (depending on how it's finally priced) vs the extra phone line plus ISP service now.

BTW, two possible explanations for ELNK's run today (to as high as 36 3/4): 1) Apparently some analyst est reporting svc (don't know which; someone on the ELNK thread quoted) showed a date for earnings of 1/22, but Gary Betty said the qtr won't be reported until mid-Feb after the year end audit. 2) Unsubstantiated rumors of a telco buyout of ELNK (again from a post over there), which "tip", of course, is worth what you pay for it.

>$1000/subscriber for a "non-facilities based" ISP? Hard to believe anyone would pay that. The bulls on the thread say they are buying for TA reasons, but who knows.

How's this for a strategy? Buy MSPG and short ELNK. Valuations based on revenues and subscribers are similar as is growth, but MSPG has been EBITDA positive for a couple qtrs and is expected to make 79 cents in '98 (cash flow exceeds CAPEX last few qtrs too, BTW). ELNK, OTOH still burns cash just from operations, forget CAPEX.

Bob
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