Trump really is a good negotiator.
My guess is that he has been delivering a set of dual messages to the Iranians designed to (1) show force but (2) bring them to the negotiating table. His bottom line is to preclude Iran from getting nukes. I believe he’ll succeed, but that the long run, after Trump's gone, is up in the air.
He’s shown force. The Iranians know he doesn’t want war, and neither do they. They’d be obliterated. No military can stand up to the US’s conventional force. None, and certainly not Iran’s.
So, Trump’s problem is how to force them to negotiate. Remember, keeping Iran from getting nukes is his goal.
Slapping the Revolutionary Guards with a terror organization designation in April was the first step. The Guards are big and very powerful in their tiny bailiwick, but the terror organization designation hurt and will continue to hurt. It’s a serious economic sanction. Their leaders’ income had to take a beating.
Trump knew that he’d provoke a response. That was his goal, and the Iranians responded predictably. So, he gets it. He wanted a predictable response so that he could threaten the Iranians, make them fear the US. And for about an hour last week, they were thinking that their goose was cooked.
But he backed off, offered an olive branch. He intentionally did this in order to allow the Iranian leaders to claim that they’d ‘won.’ They won’t lose face domestically if they agree to talks because Trump very intelligently gave them breathing room.
So, now it’s up to them. If they refuse to talk, severe sanctions remain in place. If they agree to try diplomacy, they have the prospect of reducing sanctions, thereby gaining domestic support at a time when Khameini is getting ready to croak and the succession is a very hot Iranian political potato.
As the Iranians decide what to do, the increased economic pressure on them via the designation of the Guards as a terror organization remains in place. Heh, heh.
Absolutely brilliant. Nothing’s really changed, except more stringent sanctions are in place. And we have a President whose actions cannot be easily predicted. And the Iranian leadership has a clear path to the negotiating table, which is of course best for all involved.
I’m very impressed with Trump’s use of sanctions and tariffs as instruments of American power. Much better than war.
Unlike Obama, who sent the Iranians billions. Unlike Hillary, who would be at war with Iran as we speak.
His challenge is to negotiate a nuclear-free Iran. He’s got the leverage - sanctions - but whether the Iranians will wait out his Presidency in the hope that they might land another incompetent Obama/Kerry combination remains to be seen. |
